50nlz - do we bluff river here?
Posted by Poker_Cam
Posted by
Poker_Cam
posted in
Low Stakes
50nlz - do we bluff river here?
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $81.29
SB: $81.48
BB: $157.26 (Hero)
UTG: $26.70
MP: $65.34
CO: $53.70
SB: $81.48
BB: $157.26 (Hero)
UTG: $26.70
MP: $65.34
CO: $53.70
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BB with
K
Q
, , , , ,
Flop
($6.25)
T
J
4
, , , , , ,
Turn
($26.25)
T
J
4
2
,
River
($45.21)
T
J
4
2
8
,
52 hands on CO: 18/14
Thoughts on river shove? Would you play differently Flop & Turn?
Loading 5 Comments...
Sqz pre like always, 13 BB lying dead in the middle.
Prefer calling flop with such great equity vs 18/14. Even vs splashy guys I would mix call/raise.
Turn your sizing doesn't make any sense, what hands you raised flop with and want to bet small to get outdrawn(don't tell me you have JJ played this way, JJ is super +EV sqz)? You (probably) should bet big enough to call a shove, because can't bet-fold or check/call it
River is clear check. Bluffing this likely -EV and can be burning money in some cases.
Thanks Jeff.
I thought about squeezing pre, but what sizing would you go w/ 3 other players in? $7-$7.50
Agree with turn, don't really know what i was trying to accomplish with that bet sizing
Turn I'm a bit confused by what you're doing here, you're basically repping 44, JT and bluffs when nothing improves so to me this would seem like a spot with a high checking frequency and a big sizing when we do bet, probably just going to jam. Not sure what part of your range really wants to be block betting here because you're so polarised when you raise the flop multiway.
Also just squeeze pre, sucks to get 4B and have to fold this but we're just crushed by that range anyway so not really too worried about that and we deny a lot of equity along with keeping ourselves uncapped to take the pot away so we've got more ways to make money than just hoping that we hit post flop.
I'd call pre sometimes as you did. Most people overbet this turn nowadays, but I'd just bet ~60%-70% and call it off. The way you have played the hand, I guess that size bet ott might make him raise lighter, should be followed by the push on the river just because he didnt raise the turn. AJ/AT probably is his best bluff catcher, any overpair with a club might be a fold in his shoes.
Bet sizing on the turn is really off here, in my opinion, Betting 1/3 pot here will never get a fold, which at this point would not be too bad. I would go with a much larger sizing given the total brickyness of the turn card. I would in fact consider an overbet shove at this point. Given the situation of CO just flatting the pre-flop raise and your flop check-raise, and the draw heavy nature of the flop, the CO's range can be narrowed to most likely a Jack (AJo, AJs, KJs, QJs, or possibly another flush draw or possibly KQ or Q9s also but doubtful. I think it really comes down to an exploitive read on this player and his willingness to stack off with a one-pair hand or draw. If you think he is capable of a fold to a turn shove (which can be questionable at this limit), then a turn shove is the best line as played. I would have personally squeezed pre-flop and bet a large size continuation bet, sizing dependant on the number of players that called the 3 bet. But when it comes down to it, I would shove the river as played as it is highly unlikely that you can win at showdown, because the river card pairs the two most likely hands that you were ahead of on the turn 89s, and 78s. Checking the river causes you to lose hands that beat you accidentally such as Axs, and 89s, and 78s, Unless the CO is a complete calling station, the river is a mandatory shove as played. The best hand from a value perspective that CO can have at the river is most realistically AJ or KJ.
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