[50NLz] 99 in the BB on a J high board against UTG player.

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[50NLz] 99 in the BB on a J high board against UTG player.

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: 189.42 BB (VPIP: 32.30, PFR: 24.22, 3Bet Preflop: 12.33, Hands: 166)
Hero (SB): 143.1 BB
BB: 103.68 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG: 152.6 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
MP: 176.62 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
CO: 114.44 BB (VPIP: 21.79, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 81)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9s 9d
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop : (7 BB, 2 players) Jc 4d 3c
Hero checks, UTG bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, UTG calls 8 BB

Turn : (27 BB, 2 players) Jd
Hero bets 14 BB, fold

Hero wins 25.64 BB
Rake paid 1.36 BB

On the flop I decided to check/raise as the board is good for my range.
On the turn I barrel another time. I find the board to dangerous to check and on a bet either float or give up I rather barrel and take down the pot now or be called and check on the river and evaluate then prob giving up and any high card and any card that completes the front door flush.

Here is what I see in Pokersnowie:
Flop
To my surprise PokerSnowie gives a -0.22 EV for my bet on the flop and a +0.54 for calling on the flop. Maybe 99 is not the hand to do this with as it has value of its own but I dont like being OOP against an UTG raise with a marginal holding but prob better hand then the opponent? By the way Pokersnowie gives -004 EV for a smaller reraise.
Turn
Pokersnowie would either bet full pot - I disagree as I believe that about 1/2 pot denies enough equity for human villains hand and that human villain will fold all hands that does not have hit or is a good draw on my line or check I can see the merit of checking but I rather try to play it simple and take the pot down then giving my opponent a free card.

What do you guys think of the line I took?

7 Comments

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Jbarez 6 years ago

I can't see any reason to bloat pot with underpocket . You are OOP and don't have any good cards to continue agression on turn. There is also no point in protection as he has many stronger hands and floats which will easily bluff you later.

Pokersnowie would either bet full pot - I disagree as I believe that about 1/2 pot denies enough equity for human villains hand and that human villain will fold all hands that does not have hit or is a good draw on my line or check

Pokersnowie just plays range vs range and uses appropriate sizing to his range. If you force Snowie to play 99 by x/r flop it will incorporate additional combinations into his polarized strategy. It wont create different sizing just for one hand.

Also remember you are talking about exploative approach and snowie is playing solely GTO.

akissv7 6 years ago

Yeah I know snowie plays GTO and I dont lol as arent my opponents.
I am just taking a stab at the pot with a reraise that did likely not hit my opponent as the field is overfolding on both flop and turn. As he is more LAG he will probably not overfold so much as a TAG so I barrel again on the turn.
Could indeed just call down as I am only afraid of AKQ cards and let the LAG bluff on prob turn and maybe river also.

belrio42 6 years ago

I am just taking a stab at the pot with a reraise that did likely not hit my opponent as the field is overfolding on both flop and turn.

When you say "overfold", you need to be careful about what you mean. If you mean "overfold" based on MDF, that concept mostly applies when you're bluffing. Are you bluffing? Why are you bluffing with a hand this strong?

Moreover, you have to compare the EV / pot share of checking vs betting. You can either have large equity in a small pot (if you check), or bad equity in a large pot (if you bet and get called). The former is better.

You might want to look at one of Phil Galfond's old videos where he talks about pot share, and how understanding the concept can help you in spots where you are too aggressive. Sometimes less aggressive actions lead to higher pot share.

Here's the link.

akissv7 6 years ago

Thx I think I get your point hence my last statement

Could indeed just call down as I am only afraid of AKQ cards and let
the LAG bluff on prob turn and maybe river also

Yeah this situations is one of my weaknesses playing OOP with a hand that beats opponents range given a flop.

Btw I dont have a paid subscription so I cant see the full video.

Resolve 6 years ago

I'd just call flop but I don't think raising is horrible. Against small cbets it's good to xr wider to deny equity to overcards (which is a big part of UTG's range if he's betting his whole range) but I think this hand just goes better into a x/c range. Hands like 66,55,22 would be better because they can turn more equity with OESDs and gutshots and need more protection against overcards.

I don't like the turn bet. UTG has all TT+ and more Jx than you. (offsuit broadways)
Check/calling would be great because the turn gives him more draws that he could bluff and might prevent him valuebetting QQ+ twice for value.

belrio42 6 years ago

I would either check/call flop or check/raise and then check turn. You already got protection on the flop, so there's no need to bet turn.

If you get called on turn you are likely behind and you cannot value bet river. If you check river and he bets you'll have a much more difficult decision on the river in a much bigger pot.

Denying equity on turn is much less important than denying equity on the flop, because there is only one card to come. Additionally, you induce him to bluff.

You can put some Jacks in your checking range on the turn, so you're protected.

Dubious 6 years ago

If you don't like being OOP against an UTG open range with a marginal holding and without initiative consider 3betting pre. A lot of people play pure 3bet or fold strategy vs a single raiser in the SB and I think it makes the most sense at small stakes because 1 - the rake is very high and taking it down pre avoids paying rake and 2 - people are particularly bad at reacting to 3bets correctly at small stakes.

But ok that's more of a fundamental strategy decision than a comment on the actual hand.

As played I agree with what others have said. Protection is obviously the only argument I can see for raising but the EV you gain by denying them the equity that they would fold isn't enough to justify a raise imo. It just seems like you're wading into that murky territory between value betting and bluffing and that is rarely a good idea. And that is even more the case OTT. You gotta be polar.

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