$50NLHU River DL bluff.

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

$50NLHU River DL bluff.

SB: $50
BB: $50.50 (Hero)
Villain is a maniac. Hero Bluffs, Hero Calls.
3bets 25% (more when 100bbs deep, much less at 150bbs+), flats 20%
fvcb 20%, x/r 27%
high agg%.
barrels F 65%, turn 50%, River 40%.
Preflop ($0.75) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt T J
SB raises to $1.25, Hero calls $0.75
Flop ($2.75) 4 A K (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $1.29, Hero calls $1.29
i didn't x/r here because its very hard for me to rep anything other than A4 and 44.
Turn ($5.33) 4 A K 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $3.88, Hero calls $3.88
Again, no x/r because all that came in is A2. I know this villain will call me very lite.
Also villain barrel's pretty lite, I'd expect him to have any draw/any Kx+
River ($13.09) 4 A K 2 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $7.50

Is my bluff reasonable?  I think I can have A5hh - A9hh (5 combos)QThh, QJhh, JThh (3 combos), A5 (12 combos), 45 (3 combos).  So 23 nuttish' combos, on a scary river, vs a lite barreler.  I expect he folds Kx and weak A6-A9 (AQ = A9, but he's more likely to call it).  Is this correct?

Do i have too many missed spade draws to bluff? 

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