$50NLHU fire the 3rd barrel?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

$50NLHU fire the 3rd barrel?

SB: $0 (Hero)
BB: $53.18
BN: $54
Preflop ($0.75) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt T Q
Hero raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1
Flop ($3.00) 4 9 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, Hero bets $2, Hero raises to $6, Hero calls $4
Turn ($15.00) J (2 Players)
Hero bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50
River ($36.00) A (2 Players)
Hero checks, Hero bets $14, Hero folds

Villain is an unknown, only a few hands.  Seems loose passive.

I'm having a hard time trying to determine if i should fire the 3rd barrel here or not.  I assume a river bet gets him off of 9x and all draws.  Most Jx too.

My issue is when he calls the turn, want to put him on a strongish hand AND AsXo hands b/c  the turn completes most of my semi-bluff x/r'ing range.

Now looking at it, he can have  alot of weak hands, 9x, T8, QT, KT, Ace of spades, maybe the King of spades,  etc.  When i stove the range I gave him, it looks like 50% has to fold.  I left all his flushes in here.  If i remove all his made flushes, its an easy bluff.

What do you guys think?

KK, 88, AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, QdQh, QdQc, QhQc, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc, AsKs, AdQd, AhQh, AdJd, AhJh, AsTs, KsTs, QhTh, QcTc, Ad9d, Ah9h, Kd9d, Kh9h, Kc9c, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qc9c, Jd9d, Jh9h, Jc9c, Th9h, Tc9c, As8s, Ks8s, Jd8d, Jh8h, Jc8c, Th8h, Ts8s, Tc8c, As7s, Ks7s, Ts7s, 8s7s, As6s, Ks6s, Ts6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, Ks5s, Ts5s, 8s5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As3s, Ks3s, As2s, Ks2s, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AdJh, AdJc, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AsTh, AsTc, As8d, As8h, As8c, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ah7d, Ah7s, As7d, As7h, As6d, As6h, As6c, As5d, As5h, As5c, As4d, As4h, As4c, As3d, As3h, As3c, As2d, As2h, As2c, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KdJh, KdJc, KhJd, KhJc, KsJd, KsJh, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc, KhTs, KhTc, KsTh, KsTc, KcTh, KcTs, Ks9d, Ks9h, Ks9c, QdJh, QdJc, QhJd, QhJc, QcJd, QcJh, QdTh, QdTs, QdTc, QhTs, QhTc, QcTh, QcTs, Qd9h, Qd9c, Qh9d, Qh9c, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qd8h, Qd8s, Qd8c, Qh8d, Qh8s, Qh8c, Qc8d, Qc8h, Qc8s, Qd7h, Qd7s, Qh7d, Qh7s, Qc7d, Qc7h, Qc7s, Qd6h, Qd6s, Qd6c, Qh6d, Qh6s, Qh6c, Qc6d, Qc6h, Qc6s, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTs, JhTc, JcTh, JcTs, Jd9h, Jd9c, Jh9d, Jh9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jd8h, Jd8s, Jd8c, Jh8d, Jh8s, Jh8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s, Jd7h, Jd7s, Jh7d, Jh7s, Jc7d, Jc7h, Jc7s, Th9d, Th9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, Ts9c, Tc9d, Tc9h, Th8d, Th8s, Th8c, Ts8d, Ts8h, Ts8c, Tc8d, Tc8h, Tc8s, 9d8h, 9d8s, 9d8c, 9h8d, 9h8s, 9h8c, 9c8d, 9c8h, 9c8s,

This gives him 43% of top pair or better.  I'm going to assume he folds Jx to a 3rd barrel at the start of a match. 

What do you assume about his range?

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