50NL Zoom Two Pair vs third barrel
Posted by DH2012
Posted by
DH2012
posted in
Low Stakes
50NL Zoom Two Pair vs third barrel
BN: $186.09 (Hero)
SB: $78.59
BB: $131
UTG: $106.45
HJ: $68.01
CO: $10.71
SB: $78.59
BB: $131
UTG: $106.45
HJ: $68.01
CO: $10.71
BB is a reg. 25/20 and 11 3bet
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB raises to $5, Hero calls $3.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB raises to $5, Hero calls $3.50
Flop
($10.75)
3
K
A
(2 Players)
BB bets $7.50,
Hero calls $7.50
Turn
($25.75)
3
K
A
J
(2 Players)
BB bets $16.50,
Hero calls $16.50
River
($58.75)
3
K
A
J
4
(2 Players)
BB bets $42
I am usually a tournament player. I'm trying to be less of a cash game fish and part of that process is me trying to stop to spew/pay off so many rivers. This is a spot where I used to snap call. Now I am not so sure anymore.
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Think its a std call we are a little deeper but i dont think deep enough.
We still 4bet AK here quite a bit i assume so AJ is really one of the strongest hands we are going to have in this spot, allong w 4 combos of QTs. If he had AK,AA,KK its just a cooler imo.
Barring a read that villain doesn't fire the river (low river bet) this should be a call when villain has a reasonable 3bet range. He has his pure value AA/KK/AK and then some 3bet bluffs 33/QT i've seen 44 appear here too before which is quite gross ie. villain barrels off a low pocket pair and spikes a set
I ended up hero-folding this. Maybe that is ridic nitty. But here is my reasoning:
1) Villain is a reg, so I am discounting something crazy. A random might go crazy here with a one pair hand that he just bets, because he doesn't know what else to do. But this option is out for me.
2) My hand is well defined as being Top Pair or better I think. I get into so much trouble in these spots where I expect opponents to just try and blast me off my hand when in fact they rarely do. I figured this is one of those spots where I think of my hand as relatively face up with a fairly strong range. It's just a tough spot to assume someone is just using brute force to get me off that hand.
3) The only value hand I am beating that might play this way would be A3 and even that might bluffcatch the river.
I am very open to my reasoning being wrong. I kind of arrived at point 2 by just being wrong so often and paying off too much. I just can't seem to grasp how often players 3 barrel off on bluffs and tend to make huge calling mistakes which is way I just went the other way here.
I don't think your assumptions are completely accurate, however you are right that not all regulars are going to bet 3betting and firing three streets here without having AJ beat a reasonable percentage of the time - i would be more worried if his 3bet stat was 7% or lower, but at 11% he has more broadway that may choose to fire away that is using blockers/picked up equity OTT.
2) well not exactly, you can be stubborn with KQ and a very loose QJ/JT pair+gut shot type hands.
3) i've seen KJ/A4 here too and AQ its rare but it happens, not to say villain barrels all these hands but its possible.
I think about this hands as a fight between our GTO game, and our Exploitation game. We just can pick one of them depending the villain. As always, info is money, so you can take a look on Villain WTS, WWSF and W$SD stats to obtain a more accurate decision. I recommend you to put this stats on your HUD (I got them in the popup), this actually gonna help you to make a decision on this spots! I hope I have been helpful!
Just a tiny note on your thought process, DH: The two sentences "My hand is well defined as being Top Pair or better I think" and "and even that (i.e. A3) might bluffcatch the river" are somewhat inconsistent.
DH : There`s a flaw in your thought process/analysis regarding this spot.
All the things you listed being true, you`re still oversimplifying this spot instead of carefully analyzing how complex both of your ranges can be on the river.
Simple analysis
Villain full bluff river range :
K8hh,K9hh,KThh,KQhh,K8ss,K9ss,KTss,KQss,K8cc,K9cc,KTcc,Q8hh,Q9hh,QJhh,Q8ss,Q9ss,Q8cc,Q9cc,J8hh,J9hh,JThh,T8ss,T9ss,T8hh,T9hh,65cc,76cc,87cc,97cc,98cc,T9cc.
Villain full value river range :
QT,AA,KK,AK,AJ,A3s,A4s.
Top of villain bluffing river range :
All pair+gs (with blockers) and club combos.
Hero full river range :
AJs-ATs,A3s,KhQh,KcQc,KhJh,KsJs,KhTh,KcTc,QhTh,QsTs,QcTc,JhTh,JsTs,Kc9c,AJo-ATo=35 combos.
Top of hero range :
QTcc,QTss,QThh,AJ,A3s = only 14 combos.
--So he has a slightly profitable bluff with the bottom of his range vs your entire river range, and is printing money if you`re folding AJs, A3s, AJo (11 combos) from the top of your range, which can not be correct without strong reads.
I do agree with the general sentiment by you and others that I am oversimplifying the situation and that my range isn't as strong as I first thought it to be.
Full bluff river range=Any even semi logical hand he might have, including hands with blockers that don`t pick up extra equity but are deciding to triple barrel utilizing blockers and perceived ranges.
I.E--Low-mid PP`s, random DD,SS,HH suited connectors would not be in there.
Although i've seen villains triple barrel these in these spots before
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