[50NL Zoom] Fold turned 2nd nut flush?
Posted by round2
Posted by round2 posted in Low Stakes
[50NL Zoom] Fold turned 2nd nut flush?
SB: $49.50
BB: $50.00
UTG: $39.94
MP: $123.60
CO: $50.00 (Hero)
BB is running 20/13 over 124 hands.
1/1 fold to flop c-bet
Has very low BTN/SB steal #s (not related to hand, but helps with player profile)
Preflop and flop is relatively standard. Preflop can be argued to be a 3-bet or fold but I'm okay with flatting the MR here vs a weaker MP opener and a weak BTN.
On the flop, BB makes a large 3.5x raise which I think will be weighted heavily towards value given what we know about him. Given preflop action, I can see him raising K9s, K5s, 55, 99 for value and AcXc and 76cc/87cc/86cc as a semi-bluff. I think the FDs can be slightly discounted as I think he will flat here some of the time given it's a multiway flop and my sizing is larger.
On the turn, we get our "worst out".
What's your plan?
1. Make a big exploitative lay down on the turn given we only beat 3 possible value combos of 76cc/87cc/86cc (less if you consider that he flats the bet on the flop some % of the time) and he should expect very little fold equity on this turn and should never expect me to fold any flush
2. Call turn / fold to shove on blank rivers
3. Call turn / call shove on blank rivers
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