50nl zoom 3b pot: Will he have enough blufs to justify calling river?
Posted by elbabbelino
Posted by elbabbelino posted in Low Stakes
50nl zoom 3b pot: Will he have enough blufs to justify calling river?
SB: $54.15
BB: $71.89
UTG: $63.72
MP: $51.41
CO: $54.51
Rake is $1.71
Villain takes an interesting line, leading the turn after x/c flop. I have not yet a strong opinion whether that's a strong play, but at first glance, it appears to have its upsides.
The T gives him a good number of nut straights, which he very well might decide to lead, balanced with a number of blufs.
Yet, after x/c on the flop, will he realistically show up with enough blufs here to justify calling down on the river?
I'm aware I'm very close to the top of my range and if villain is well balanced, I can't fold.
Still, Í would be surprised if the average 50nl regular will turn enough hands into a bluf.
Especially on the river, where AA/KK now also beat us, what do I really beat?
To be able to call he has to bluf both turn and river with hands like this: 99-77? ATs/KTs? AdXd?
I guess he might - and probably should, given his lead turn strategy -, but will he really?
Or can I just exploitatively fold even this strong of a hand versus 50nl population, without specific reads?
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