$50NL What are you putting villain on for a range?
Posted by dtools22
Posted by
dtools22
posted in
Low Stakes
$50NL What are you putting villain on for a range?
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BB: $64.75 (Hero)
UTG: $54.50
MP: $79.92
CO: $56.83
BN: $18.25
SB: $52.20
UTG: $54.50
MP: $79.92
CO: $56.83
BN: $18.25
SB: $52.20
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BB with
K
Q
, , , ,
Flop
($4.50)
8
4
2
, , ,
Turn
($10.50)
8
4
2
K
, ,
River
($22.50)
8
4
2
K
4
,
I've seen this line by villains in this spot a few times and I'm trying to get a better feel for what this bet likely indicates. My question here is what kind of range are you putting the villain on when he leads on that river?
Loading 17 Comments...
It seems to me that villain has hit a set maybe 8s 4s 2s and is happy for you to bet on a non wet flop and turn
Weird line. Wouldnt it be in SB best interest to x/raise river with fullhouses or at least lead bigger?
I would agree here. I think sets tend to ch/r the flop more than call. I do want to see what other people experience when grinding though. My instinct would be to discount sets on flop and put villain on some kind of float, a decent 8, a good 4, or some kind of straight draw.
The river lead out makes me question my initial read a bit. In game this felt like some kind of value bet on the end but ultimately I feel like this could still be an 8 or some other pair. I do see at these lower stakes players betting out here with a pair that now doesn't need to worry about its kicker.
In game this seemed like a call and that the villain had something more like a one pair hand. Curious to see what others think though.
Weird line but I think you're beat almost always here.
Really? What are you expecting to see here? In game do you think villain's range is so strong we can fold this hand?
I expect to see a lot of boats, quads. There aren't that many hands that call twice that are worse than KQ. There are no draws on the board that call twice and he has to turn hands like 8x into a bluff for us to call here. And I don't see that happen that frequently so I just safely fold here.
I take these two player are both regs of some kind as you have provided not reads.
PRE
I think you should be squeezing this pre. You have the perfect hand for it as you double block KK QQ KA.
FLOP
I'm not sure why you lead this flop multi way yes the board is dry but MP can have all sets and over pair in their range. SB can have Mid PP, Sets and can call with gut shot or worse check raise bluff you. Are you playing a sets this way I don't think you would due to looking to XR or call MP and hope SB comes along. You may lead 99 TT if you haven't squeezed pre. what I'm saying is your strategy imbalanced.
If SB does have a set you there is no reason to check raise as flop is really dry and I'd want to keep bluffs in your range. If the board was more connected I would XR.
Range
Value
22 / 44 / 88 / 99 / TT
marginal hand
A8s A4s 55 66 77
Draw 6s5s /6s7s / As3s / A5s
TURN
The Turn can be good or bad for you it does put a back door draw, you have to bet it due to the draws and under pairs in their range and I like the size are you bet folding?
This street tightens their range
VALUE
22 / 44 / 88 /
marginal hand
99 / TT these may or may not call depends on reg.
DRAWS 6s5s /6s7s As3s / As5s
RIVER
The river is interesting all PP will check and look to get to show down. The draws have bricked and villain leads for half pot, without a read this could be a cheap bluff or a value bet. Would you have value bet this river?
if we look at the combos
Value 22(3) 44(1) 88(3) TOT 7
Draws 6s5s / 6s7s / As3s / As5s (4)
You have 36% equity IF they bluff all 4 combos. They have bet half pot so you need to be good 25% or more of the time.
Do you think villain will take this line as a bluff then you can work out if it is a call or not?
Flop is the type of clicking random buttons that I do a lot too and I think it really sucks and is expensive habit.
Im not folding otr vs that sizing. I'd fold vs ~$17. Might seem arbitrary, just my experience.
I actualyl think that folding is a fairly sizable mistake.
Flop donk seems kinda random to me, I would just check with this hand, you have no backdoor draws or anything.
As played call river
I think it is impossible to comment without at least, some stats on villain.
If SB is a fish, his range is probably wide preflop, and probably still wide after calling the flop bet.
If SB's range is pretty wide preflop, he could have many holdings that we could beat.
Plz post something about villain because commenting this spot without anything it would lead you to nothing imo
Posting stats is honestly quite useless unless OP wants to know how to play versus a specific type of player.
It doesn't matter whether we come to a final solution for this specific hand with this specific opponent, all that matters is that what OP/we learn. Posting stats and using them doesn't really do anything.
And btw: What do we do if we don't have any stats? Is it just an "impossible" spot?
being able to analyse stats is important
"he is unknown" is also an info
most of us go by population assumptions that are as baseless as small sample size stats anyway, its not like we're really looking for gto in most spots, so why not work with as much info as possible
With impossible I mean, the discussion we are having could be dead wrong and what you are going to learn could be bad/wrong.
Certainly we can discuss about population tendencies if you want, and this could be useful, however be aware that memory is tricky and without a solid analysis on population we could recall and adjust badly.
Thank you all for the feedback. I have been seeing villains lead on the river a bunch, in my experience it's usually some kind of one pair hand trying to set a price on the river. I wasn't sure what other grinders are experiencing in these spots so I'm glad to hear the feedback.
Edit: In game this felt like villain was value betting into me and the sizing did feel like a stronger range, but I just didn't think the range was strong enough for me to fold my hand.
What did he have?
The villain in this hand had AK and won the pot
I kind of don't hate villains line if its (exploitative) for value here considering that you could lead a lot of 8x here. Your BB completing range should contain quite a few 8x (89s, 78s, T8s, j8s etc) a majority of those you'd fold to a turn raise and check back on river.
From your side I think it's highly villain dependent. His SB flatting range SHOULD be kinda medium to strong hands. And he shouldn't have 22 or 44. But I think ppl flat wider than they should out of SB.
As played I would not fold to that price. But I'd expect to see a lot of 4x
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