50nl, value on river? sizing?

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50nl, value on river? sizing?

163.3bb effective. No reads.

Hero is BTN with Ts8s
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3bb, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop (6.5bb) Qs5c2s
BB checks, Hero bets 3bb, BB raises to 10bb, Hero calls.

Turn (26.5bb) Qs5c2s 9c
BB bets 16bb, Hero calls.

River (58.5bb) Qs5c2s 9c 2h
BB checks, Hero?

Hey guys, river bet felt dirty ingame as I'm not sure If hero is value betting AA/AQ here on river, so I'm worried about not repping any value. Plus villains range seems polarised to folds or x/r's. Thoughts?

16 Comments

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tesla79 9 years, 7 months ago

Yeah, a decent (pot) 3rd barrel would be great here:
- you "never" can't win in SD
- V hard to call with QJ, QK, QTs
- villan usually would raise with sets.

Limp Limpson 9 years, 7 months ago

think that tesla misread the hand

I'd valuejam AQ and I'd prob jam this combo, expecting to get folds a lot. Vjamming AQ mostly because we're never beat

Nate Rotten Tomatoes 9 years, 7 months ago

@Limpson
i never played 50NL+; but out of pure curiosity:
Vjam OTR with AQ!? I know AQ is better hand than KK+ in terms of blockers in this spot. But I assume u'll jam with KK+ too.
U shud have bluffs in this spot to balance that.
I wonder what's ur bluff/value combos OTR when jamming in this spot.

jonte89 9 years, 7 months ago

flop; standard to call, he rep 55,22, some fd ( you block most fd) some A3, and just bluffs. I think he never x/r a hand like QJ,QT,Q9 etc,
turn; standard call
River; he just never xb river here w a set, and some bluffs gives up to. So I have bet the river to rep a toppar etc.

JediMindTricks 9 years, 7 months ago

he just never x's river here w a set

I'm not so sure, Villain can also have Q2s and possible some 2cXc plus 22 and 55 that quite possible want to x/r the river considering the stack depth.

SPrince 9 years, 7 months ago

Fold flop to a x/r, and yes you should vb AQ+ on the river.

Edit - Miss read cb+raise sizing, can`t fold flop.

JediMindTricks 9 years, 7 months ago

I'd be way overfolding if I folded this to a x/r, plus I've been experimenting with smaller c-bet sizes and I'm not sure if this villain may of been playing back lighter as a result so I think folding flop is out of the question.

Can you expand on your thought process please?
What worst hands does villain can versus a river bet?

Bandidas 9 years, 7 months ago

I play like you until the river.
River when V check he GU his bluff for the most part, and some time he can check a set for let you prop bet your miss draw.
So, here I will just c/b everything who bit his bluff and bet everything who don't have showdown equity (so, i bet T8s). I don't have any value range here, because the top of my range will be AA,KK,AQ and i don't have any value to take with those hands (considering V range). Maybe if you want to play tricky you can gay bet those hands river and hope a raise of V with his bluff...(to do when you run good.^^)
For the sizing, i think no reason to make a big bet, something like 2/3pot should be good.

Sorry for my english. I'm french and my english is not so good.

JediMindTricks 9 years, 7 months ago

Villain probably folds enough by just folding give ups that betting bluffs here will probably not be -ev, but optimally betting only bluffs on the river can never be right.
Your english is fine by the way :)

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