50NL: Turning medium strength hand into a bluff on the river
Posted by TheChosenOne
Posted by
TheChosenOne
posted in
Low Stakes
50NL: Turning medium strength hand into a bluff on the river
BN: $114.83 (Hero)
SB: $56.18
BB: $93.29
UTG: $32.96
HJ: $28.35
CO: $43.70
SB: $56.18
BB: $93.29
UTG: $32.96
HJ: $28.35
CO: $43.70
20/16/19, 3bet 11% sb vs btn
cbet flop: 67
cbet turn: 62
cbet flop: 67
cbet turn: 62
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
8
8
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $0.85, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $0.85, BB folds
Flop
($2.70)
J
4
4
(2 Players)
SB bets $2.25,
Hero calls $2.25
Turn
($7.20)
J
4
4
6
(2 Players)
SB bets $4.25,
Hero calls $4.25
River
($15.70)
J
4
4
6
J
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $11
When he checks I think he almost never has the J. I would check this back on a lot of runouts, but I felt the J is a very good card for me to bluff. He's prolly folding 99/TT and QQ+ some of the time.
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Wouldn't he 3bet preflop most hands that you are trying to fold out by "bluffing" here? I really think you have the best hand here 90% of the time, and I think you have a spot where you could bet small to maybe get thin value from his ace highs, or check back and scoop the pot.
thats is a vbet not a bluff i think
u have lots of missed f/d in your range
I never understand these plays at such small stakes. Why not just check back on the river? Getting x/r would be filthy.
Players at 25c/50c aren't calling with ace high after action like this, especially since to him, you've basically represented a Jack the whole way.
Just check behind you are good here quite often I would say. Turning a hand into a bluff with good SDV into this spot is pretty attrocious to me, you will get called light with the busted FD's present and the level of BTN vs SB, and the level of repping a tight range, bluffing here is bad. To me you are bluffing if you bet here, caus I struggle to see a hand that plays this way and calls off this river bet maybe 55/77, maybe some random A high but I would need reads for that, because you need to have a read his donking range and turn betting range contains those naked A highs, AND he can bluffcatch with them on the River. To me it is a very easy check behind on the River and get information about his donking range on a J44tt board SB VS BTN.
I have no idea what the SB can have but I don't like his line with anything really, this is a board you should CB a ton, and it is a turn you should hardly ever fold after calling the flop, so with a value hand imo he's losing value, and with a bluff-semi-bluff he has a bad turn barrel, unless it is a FD and he is planning to barrel the majority of Rivers as a bluff as well, and maybe shuts down because of the board pairing, the last one would make sense because x/raising this board with a FD isn't amazing, x/calling kind of sucks, so his option to have some FE is to either donk or x/c donk turns. So when his most likely range contains completely random hands that we beat, or busted FD's that we beat, or weirdly played value hand or only option really is to check.
Wow i feel stupid. Until now i thought preflop went he 3bet and i call. Thats why i put his 3bet in the reads. Must have been tired.
Anyone like a bluff in case he did 3bet, or still not? As played i agree with the check back.
I don't think this is a bluff at all and I wouldn't expect villain to ever fold 99 or TT after taking this line when 2 FDs missed.
I think it's a good valuebet because villain can definitely call with 77, 6x if he somehow turned it or even A high given that so many draws missed.
Im checking back here, I think TT/99 3 bets pre a lot, and thats the only better we can really hope to fold here
If it was 3 bet and we did get to river here, Im not sure. We have other hands in our range to bluff (missed FDs), so really this is one of the few rare spots where I think its really easy just to play unexploitably, think about how many Jx you have in your range, and shove an appropriate number of bluffs. Start at the bottom of your range whatever that may be, and work up from there
Some reasonable assumptions assuming 3bet pot (please let me know if you agree with these)
If our BTN open is 50%+, a reasonable defend includes AJ, KJs QJs JTs ... we may have enough combos so that we don't need to use the offsuit variants of Jx like KJo QJo JTo (we could defend wider if we have reads on villain's postflop play). For completeness i'm also defending A4s/44
From above we have AJ/KJs QJs JTs/A4s/44 equal to 17 (8+2+2+2+2+1) combos. Which would exceed the number of missed flush draws - bluffs.
What would a reasonable ratio of bluffs/value be given bet sizing?
"What would a reasonable ratio of bluffs/value be given bet sizing?"
The ratio would depend entirely on what we sized our bet. If we bet say half pot, villain is getting 3-1 odds and needs us to be bluffing 25% of the time to break even on his call. So assuming our 17 value combos we want that to make up 75% of our range. So we would bluff 5.6 combos since 17/22.6 equals 75%. If we bet pot villain needs us to be bluffing 33% of the time, so we would bluff 8.5 combos. If we bet 2x pot villain needs us to be bluffing 40% so we would bluff 9.3 combos. So the bigger our bet, the more combos we can bluff. So ideally in this spot on the river in a 3 bet pot we should just be shoving as it allows us to bluff the most number of combos and thus increase our profit, all the while keeping villain indifferent from calling or folding.
Agree with Daz, so bet the river is not a good move actually, you cant get villain fold even 99/tt/qq.You bet the river, your range is really strong here ,if you really has J or big pair, how could you build this small pot before the river?
It's a super standard spot to just check/back. Looks like he fired twice and just gave up to me. Depending on the feel, I don't mind the thin value bet on river though like 55/77/Ace high might call.
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