50NL: TPMK in 3B pot vs. turn raise against unknown
Posted by bdon22
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bdon22
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50NL: TPMK in 3B pot vs. turn raise against unknown
Villain is an unknown, with stats of 23/21 and steal of 38% over a small sample (61 hands). I guess I could have defended as BB was only 20/13 with a 3-bet of 3.3% but I decided to just 3-bet.
Flopped a decent board for my hand. No reads at all but the board is quite dry and I expect to get peeled by 77-JJ a lot here and the occasional KQ/AQ. 44/66 is also likely but maybe not quite as likely since not everyone flats those to 3-bets to set mine especially in BTN vs. SB.
OTT I decided to bet again for value as 77/88 picked up a draw and will likely call again and for protection against most other hands. Plus I think it protects my 2-barreling range a bit as well.
When I get raised I expect this to be a strong hand quite often (AQ/slowplayed KK/AA). I can't really see 87s peeling the flop here quite often. But the raise is on the small size and I think if he has Axhh that peeled flop he could play it this way too? Even against KK+/AQ I am about neutral EV on a call to spike a J on the river.
OTR pretty much a brick and his bet size gives me over 5:1 on a call. Not sure if he bluffs with this sizing at all. But it could be that my 61 hand sample is not large enough and he could be a spazzy player doing this with something dumb like 77/88 or Q2s for some pseudo-thin value. I think I should call the river and take some expensive notes if I lost.
Thoughts?
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you shouldn't 3bet QJo pf OOP unless you have a read on how the villain plays post-flop. Is he passive or aggressive? were you bluffing or value 3betting? what's his Fv3B (what's his calling range?). Having a real read makes this spot easy, having no read makes it a pure guess.
As a default, turn raises are usually the nuts, so would have bet 5 into 8 on the flop, like 11 on the turn, and fold vs the raise. If we get flatted on the turn, I'd probably x/f this river. You're deep enough that your sizing really doesn't threaten stacks, which you want to always do.
My assumptions are that
1. getting raised anywhere means we're beat
2. once we get to the river, we can't value shove,
3. he can't have many bluffing hands to bet or shove himself
4. he's not value shoving TT, JJ, QT-
i think bigger bet on flop, and fold on turn
i think low end of his range is maybe 77 and dont know if he raise with it OTT,no other draw for semibluf OTT.
I`m going with 75% pot bets in a min raised/3bet pot.
If he plays a lot of hands I think you can start 3betting him more IP rather than OOP until you get more info on his postflop play.
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