50NL: TPMK in 3B pot vs. turn raise against unknown
Posted by bdon22
Posted by bdon22 posted in Low Stakes
50NL: TPMK in 3B pot vs. turn raise against unknown
Villain is an unknown, with stats of 23/21 and steal of 38% over a small sample (61 hands). I guess I could have defended as BB was only 20/13 with a 3-bet of 3.3% but I decided to just 3-bet.
Flopped a decent board for my hand. No reads at all but the board is quite dry and I expect to get peeled by 77-JJ a lot here and the occasional KQ/AQ. 44/66 is also likely but maybe not quite as likely since not everyone flats those to 3-bets to set mine especially in BTN vs. SB.
OTT I decided to bet again for value as 77/88 picked up a draw and will likely call again and for protection against most other hands. Plus I think it protects my 2-barreling range a bit as well.
When I get raised I expect this to be a strong hand quite often (AQ/slowplayed KK/AA). I can't really see 87s peeling the flop here quite often. But the raise is on the small size and I think if he has Axhh that peeled flop he could play it this way too? Even against KK+/AQ I am about neutral EV on a call to spike a J on the river.
OTR pretty much a brick and his bet size gives me over 5:1 on a call. Not sure if he bluffs with this sizing at all. But it could be that my 61 hand sample is not large enough and he could be a spazzy player doing this with something dumb like 77/88 or Q2s for some pseudo-thin value. I think I should call the river and take some expensive notes if I lost.
Thoughts?
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