50nl Top set, villain c/r flop instead of cbet

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50nl Top set, villain c/r flop instead of cbet

BB: $51.25
UTG: $74.91
HJ: $50
CO: $44.72
BN: $59.78 (Hero)
SB: $50.25
Villain is 31/19 reg and my notes on him is that he is kind of stationy. Breakeven over 20k hands (mined).
His wtsd is 27%. He skips cbet and c/r 12% on the flop. AFQ is 42.
He probably tends to not give me that much credit as he 4bet bluffed me EP/BTN, when a fish overcalled my 3bet from the BB. It could've been just an attempt to iso the fish with a WA/WB hand though.

Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 9
UTG raises to $1.50, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($3.75) 2 9 6 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.50, UTG raises to $8
I could've bet bigger, but I also stab here with air a lot, so I like to keep my betsize consistent, also gives him some room to c/r me. When he goes with the c/r, I was really unsure about the optimal line vs this villain.

Would you 3bet flop? And if so, what sizing? What do you think is his c/r range here?

My main problem is that I look very strong here if I 3bet. Even shoving would look weaker probably. Calling seems dirty too assuming he can have a big draw here.


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