vs random reg
bet vs missed CB 2/3
AFq 47

I'm playing on a new site, so I don't have many reads on the players here

I went for a XC here - sure, I have 2 OvC + OESD, but I feel like my outs are typically scary for the Villain, whereas they are scary for my XC range and I expect the Villain to be barreling them quite often.

Here I got a little fancy - I don't expect him to be betting Tx, and I assume most Villains 3b TT-JJ preflop, as well as AQ+/KQ*, so I'm mostly facing stuff like KJo+/JTs+/67s/78s that he turns into a bluff/FD.

I also don't think he flats Q9s pre, although he might, same for J8s, and T8s probably XB flop, same for 88, whereas I can find a XC with all these hands.

Calling didn't seem all that attractive, since he shuts down otr, 9x is no longer a good bluff out for him, I think, same for Qx, so I've decided to go for a XR and put pressure on his range that is capped for the most part.

I think I can play TT/JJ//88/Q9/55 this way, as for made hands, whereas I can't see most of these hands in his range ott given his flat pre + bet flop.

I was really lost here, so I'd appreciate some help.

-I'm not shoving T8s/J8s on this card, and I usually XC turn with these - not ahead vs BC range (T8s has a roughly a flip/J8 has 44%)
-not shoving AXhh either,
-my betting range = KQ and sets, basically, in which case, shoving made the most sense,
-his BC turn range = KQ/JTs/55/KJ+/67hh//89hh/some TT-JJ combos (although I expect him to 3b these)
-he doesn't have that many hands to turn into a bluff -> maybe stuff like J9s/89s, but I'm not sure he BC the turn with these
-I can't really see what am I bluffing here with - AK/AQ/AXhh picks up SDv, KQ gets there, I have TT/JJ/55/88 in my range - maybe some QT/T9/99 combos that I'm turning into a bluff?

So, my betting range would look like this, in which case, shoving was the play: