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50nl Deep - Tricky spot otr w/ 3rd set

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50nl Deep - Tricky spot otr w/ 3rd set

UTG: $130.20
HJ: $232.60
CO: $135.72
BN: $168.78
SB: $168.78 (Hero)
BB: $128.04
UTG Stats: - VPIP: 30, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 1.6, RFI UTG: 18% Hands: 602

Villain is a regular who plays most of the deep tables. He's on the looser side and has an extremely low f3b% of 18%.
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 8 8
UTG raises to $1.50, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls $1.30, BB folds
Not much to say here. Anything other than calling seems pretty bad.
Flop ($3.55) 8 A 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50
Don't really wanna have a raising range on this board. It's quite dry and I feel I can keep ranges wider if I just call.
Turn ($10.55) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $8.50, Hero raises to $22, UTG calls $14.50
Few draws come in so I think I should be raising this seeing how deep we are. Think it's quite reasonable for me to float hands like 78ss which could raise turn as a semibluff etc
River ($55.55) Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $39.99, UTG raises to $103.10, Hero folds
Put out a pretty sizable bet which I would with my missed draws for balance. I really don't think he'll be having a huge bluff range here.

I think undersets like 55 would just call because the value range i'm repping has him in pretty average shape.

Shipping AQ for value in his shoes would we suicide.

With the price we are getting we need to be good 24% of the time (ignoring rake).

Given this, if he's shoving all 55 combos it's a call. If he isn't, it's a fold.
Final Pot
UTG wins $131.06 , UTG wins $63.12

Hey guys,

First post here so please go gentle. Just wanted to get your thoughts on this hand.

Thanks,

raspaz


edit: not sure how to remove results from the HH. sorry about that.



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