50nl Deep - Tricky spot otr w/ 3rd set

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50nl Deep - Tricky spot otr w/ 3rd set

UTG: $130.20
HJ: $232.60
CO: $135.72
BN: $168.78
SB: $168.78 (Hero)
BB: $128.04
UTG Stats: - VPIP: 30, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 1.6, RFI UTG: 18% Hands: 602

Villain is a regular who plays most of the deep tables. He's on the looser side and has an extremely low f3b% of 18%.
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 8 8
UTG raises to $1.50, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls $1.30, BB folds
Not much to say here. Anything other than calling seems pretty bad.
Flop ($3.55) 8 A 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50
Don't really wanna have a raising range on this board. It's quite dry and I feel I can keep ranges wider if I just call.
Turn ($10.55) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $8.50, Hero raises to $22, UTG calls $14.50
Few draws come in so I think I should be raising this seeing how deep we are. Think it's quite reasonable for me to float hands like 78ss which could raise turn as a semibluff etc
River ($55.55) Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $39.99, UTG raises to $103.10, Hero folds
Put out a pretty sizable bet which I would with my missed draws for balance. I really don't think he'll be having a huge bluff range here.

I think undersets like 55 would just call because the value range i'm repping has him in pretty average shape.

Shipping AQ for value in his shoes would we suicide.

With the price we are getting we need to be good 24% of the time (ignoring rake).

Given this, if he's shoving all 55 combos it's a call. If he isn't, it's a fold.
Final Pot
UTG wins $131.06 , UTG wins $63.12

Hey guys,

First post here so please go gentle. Just wanted to get your thoughts on this hand.

Thanks,

raspaz


edit: not sure how to remove results from the HH. sorry about that.



8 Comments

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Ondrej Rysavy 11 years, 1 month ago

"edit: not sure how to remove results from the HH. sorry about that. "only delete everything what you want,you can even erase your hand and still HH convert


Board :: 8hAs5d4sQc 

 Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi        Range           

    

   1       46.3     46.3     0.0            8d8s      

   2       53.7     53.7     0.0       AA, [76],44,55 


mplecki23 11 years, 1 month ago

bleh tough spot. I don't think 55/44 are shipping the river, nor AQ. Maybe some 55? He could have some Ax with a straight blocker that it going for a bluff, but I can't imagine it being that often. He seems like the type that would have 76s utg as well.

temati 11 years, 1 month ago

I don`t think that he would shove 44 or 55, because we can have all 76s, 88 and for him it is situation for bluffcatching with low sets. Nice fold. But u can raise turn bigger because of u both so deep

raspaz 11 years, 1 month ago

Thanks for all the responses guys. I felt I made a good fold assuming the villain has a decent idea of relative hand strength. Good to see you guys (mostly) agree.

James Hudson 11 years, 1 month ago

Looks like a fold unless you've seen villain go thinner for value with river raises than you think he should or run some bluffs that look suicidal.

Piper420 11 years, 1 month ago
I am trying hard to understand why this is a clear fold. Can villain never have AQ or a bluff here? Not being able to lay down hands such as this may be making me bleed money. Can you show me the numbers that make this a clear fold?


James Hudson 11 years, 1 month ago
I would say that villain can basically never have a bluff here given how little he's raising on the river and the fact that such a huge chunk of his range is going to be bluff catchers. That being said, I thought about it a little more and it's possible that it's a call due to the villain overvaluing a set. I'm curious what guys who play these stakes think.

If villain jams a range of aces, 67s, and 55 we stand to make around 16$ on our call.
If villain jams a range of only aces and 67s we stand to lose around 62$ on our call.
If villain jams a range of Aces, 67s, 55 and all combos of AQ we stand to make 102$ on our call.

I happen to think that scenario 2 is far more likely than scenario 3 but I don't play in these games. 


raspaz 11 years ago

Thanks a lot James. I feel river raises tend to be nutted at these stakes. Most villains don't have the balls to shove something like AQ (blockers to top 2 sets I guess?).

The $ amounts in your 2nd post seem accurate, but i'd say #2 is fairly heavily weighted given the player pool.

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