50NL, bottom set on awkward turn

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50NL, bottom set on awkward turn

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BB: $94.91 (Hero)
UTG: $29.44
MP: $51.55
CO: $78.55
BN: $50.00
SB: $84.97
Villain is a reg who opens 69% of BTNs.
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BB with 3 3
3 folds, BN raises to $1.50, SB folds, Hero calls $1.00
Flop ($3.85) 3 5 J
Hero checks, BN bets $1.92, Hero raises to $7.00, BN calls $5.08
Villain's cbet is 50% over 3.3k hands.
Turn ($17.85) 3 5 J 4
Hero checks, BN bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50
Really not sure what to do here. Should I just keep barreling? There should be some pair + FD hands I'm getting value from, but not really a whole lot.

I check and villain bets this weird size. Is he trying to milk me with the nuts or is he trying to push me off my equity? His betsize sets him up for a PSB river shove.

3 Comments

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puchium 10 years, 2 months ago

well your ck/r doesn't look strong, so he will be calling with a wide range. But on the other hand the most likely hand for that raise on the flop is a FD and it gets there on the turn so if you bet he might fold a huge % of his range.

If you ck/r and then ck back turn you are showing weakness vs the flush. I think he could bet Ac this way and shove on any river depending how aggro he is.

on 3.3k hands there has to be more info.

cpau 10 years, 2 months ago

I think you have to bet the turn. You range for x/r flop: FDs, sets, maybe 2pairs, so you have something on every run out turn.

  • On a flush turn card, you have lots of flush and you dont want to be checking because not all of your flushes are the nut flush and you dont want him to cb with an AcXx and spike a better flush. If you start checking sets and only betting flushes, you are easy to play against imo. I think I'd bet my entire range OTT and readjust if he raises (probably call a small raise and fold river unimproved)

  • On a blank card, you still have sets and 2pairs, so you still want to bet your entire range (sets and 2pairs for value and FD as a semi bluff)

IMaufJute2 10 years, 2 months ago

i like your line, just want to add that our turn bet can be just a tad bit smaller with a set to "potcontrol" it and save some dollars when we dont have flush

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