50NL - bottom set on an unfortunate runout

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50NL - bottom set on an unfortunate runout

SB: Paprika: $53.35
BB: Mushmellow: $87.40
http://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/50nl-99-in-3bet-pot-facing-flop-cr-tu/

Same opponent as this thread.
Preflop ($0.75) (2 Players)
Mushmellow was dealt 3 3
Paprika raises to $1.25, Mushmellow calls $1
I call here, which is my standard.
Flop ($3.00) 3 5 J (2 Players)
Mushmellow checks, Paprika bets $2, Mushmellow raises to $6, Paprika calls $4
I check raised villain the last two times when he cbet so I CR here for value with the same sizing. This is the first time villain has called.
Turn ($15.00) 3 5 J 4 (2 Players)
Mushmellow bets $9.66, Paprika calls $9.66
I think I should have sized this bet larger here so I can set up stacks better for the river. Regardless, I bet and he calls. I put him on flush draws, floats (which I think he will fold to my turn bet), top pair, and maybe some OESD that he turned. Also turned diamonds could also call here (since he is trying to outplay me in position).
River ($34.32) 3 5 J 4 2 (2 Players)
Mushmellow checks, Paprika bets $15.50

I don't think there is any value in betting here as I think all his two pair type hands would have jammed on me on the turn. I am putting him on lots of draws that ended up getting there. Any six beats me here, and club draw, and A (which he could have floated me IP two streets since I think he thinks that I've been playing back at me).

His sizing is small and I feel like he knows when I check here my range is weak and the river didn't improve me. Looks like a value bet to me. Is there any chance he could be going for thin value with two pair type hands? 

I think we can find a fold here since almost everything villain floats us on the flop and turn gets there on this river. Also, if he were bluffing me I think he would just jam it not make this small sizing (also I can't really think of any hands he has here that would bluff me except missed backdoor diamonds and a 2x which turned an OESD).

What do you guys think?

Thanks!


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