50NL: Bluff shove on the river

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50NL: Bluff shove on the river

BN: $25
SB: $53.42
BB: $57.19 (Hero)
UTG: $90.88
HJ: $67.21
CO: $50.75
villain is unknown
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 6 6
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.50
Flop ($4.25) 7 5 2 (2 Players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3
Turn ($10.25) 7 5 2 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $7, Hero calls $7
River ($24.25) 7 5 2 9 K (2 Players)
SB bets $11.50, Hero raises to $45.19, and is all in
Given his sizing I think this bet is weighted towards Kx or a cheap bluff. And having a spade blocker makes it a little less likely he has the flush.

19 Comments

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PT 11 years, 1 month ago

you beat all his bluffs by calling shoving turns your hand into a bluff and hes got u crushed 100% of the time when he calls so if your trying to catch him bluffing do it for 11.50. hes never folding better or calling with worse so imo the shove is bad. and im not sure he ever has a king in this spot and if he did im sure he doesnt bet?

Bink182 11 years, 1 month ago

I agree what Kx does hero have on the river here? If I had TT-QQ I'd have trouble folding, def not a snap call but he called down to the river w KT KJ KQ? doubt it. It seems to me that he's only folding a 7 or a 9 which IMO is too thin.

ItsToothPasteISwear 11 years, 1 month ago

I dont like it vs an unknown. I understand it cuz his sizing seems weak, but its just too hard to know. I mean imagine youre in his shoes and rivered your flush, why would you bet any bigger then he did? You dont have many hands that can call a big bet, so betting small seems the way to go, it also might induce you to raise a smaller flush or pull some bluff, or hero call a weak pair. Its also possible hes just some dumb fish with a strong hand he has no intention of folding and he just bet small because the flush came in and hes scared, but hes still just going to click call because thats what fish do. Maybe he has enough 1 pair hands or air that are folding, but again we dont know how often he double barrels a king here on this run out or what his value betting tendencies are. Lots of  people at these stakes I imagine might even be too weak to bet a king on the river.


TheChosenOne 11 years, 1 month ago

I just tend to think people bet a little bit bigger when they have a clear valuebet. With a K here people might worry that I fold too much if he bets too big. Of course this is not always correct and people do make these half pot bets with flushes. But without further information I'm weighting it more towards a medium value hand.

But I agree him being an unknown makes it a little less attractive. For all I know he might be a huge station not caring about what I represent.

RaoulFlush 11 years, 1 month ago

I think its an ok play...Not sure why the others say that villain wont fold any better...pretty sure any 1p hand should fold vs your shove and even 2P/sets should have a hard time here and you will have a lot of flushes in your range...Its a bit ugly to make this play vs an unknown for the reasons ITPIS (nice little new nick for you right:) ?) mentioned about fishes wont fold anyhing here.....

But vs a somehwat thinking player i guess this play is fine

I wouldnt read too much in sizings of an unknown player...They do it as a blockingbet, they do it for inducing....wouldnt count too much on that before i get a read....

so my ranking is Fold~shove>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>call (not enough SDV IMO)

Ondrej Rysavy 11 years, 1 month ago

is funny ,if this game was from side of villain ,is interesting what range we give him for call this shove?i guess that flushs and 2P,we never say him to call here With TT-QQ,even some weird KQ.

because we see villain call two times IP and than shove river after spade come.some kind of missisipi bluff is weird ,only hand what he can shove here like a bluff is exactly 66,88,A7,64


I like your shove again thinking player,it much easy give you here strong range ,you rep flush really good,because there are no busted draw ,even T8 completed.

PT 11 years, 1 month ago

i think in a vacuum this is a loosing play esp at micro thats just imo and hes getting a price to call with all his two pairs flushes sets or sticky pairs putting in like 30 to win 80 something. but i deff see where yall are coming from but vs unknowns at micro and blah blah yea its deff imo not gonna work enough to show profit in the long run

PT 11 years, 1 month ago

your line screams nothing or a flush imo so is he getting the right price to call crushing i HUGE part of your range.. idk just throwing ideas out there

PT 11 years, 1 month ago

then again look at what i did here http://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/good-river-fold/ maybe u guys are right and u rep something like As5s or really any AsXs and can never in the eyes of villain be bluffing in this spot... idk lol

sandmansuitd 11 years, 1 month ago

i think its a fine play, although pretty high variance. youl get him to fold all one pair hands and possibly hel even hero fold some 2pairs but i dont see him playing his fd any different then this so i think jamming into a range that has a bunch of flushes in it is kinda scary. you could say that he probably wouldnt bet that sizing on the river with a flush but i dont like to put to much weight into bet sizing against unknown players. 

all in all i think its a ok play and i guess this does allow us to have a bluffing range in this spot which is always nice but i think its possibly too risky 

Sauce123 11 years, 1 month ago

If you think he doesn't play a flush like this, then this is a strong play.  You'll have a flush a fair amount (maybe 7-12%) and so you get to bluff sometimes and put him in an awful spot. 

Ducky7 11 years, 1 month ago

Seems like a good enough play to me :)

- Unknowns

If hes a fish he will probably see the flush and start moaning about how he got unlucky to himself and fold a ton of his range

If he's a reg he will probably give you quite a lot of credit for this raise as he will have no information on you

d0zer 11 years, 1 month ago

looks good, i think it is reasonable to make a population read that that type of sizing is indicative of weakness that we can attack with a wide range of hands that aren't good enough to call with 

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