[50NL 6max] Raised on river with 2pair
Posted by round2
Posted by
round2
posted in
Low Stakes
[50NL 6max] Raised on river with 2pair
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
SB: $50.00
BB: $50.00 (Hero)
UTG: $26.83
MP: $106.21
CO: $50.00
BN: $68.03
BB: $50.00 (Hero)
UTG: $26.83
MP: $106.21
CO: $50.00
BN: $68.03
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BB with
9
J
, , ,
Flop
($3.25)
8
J
9
,
Turn
($8.15)
8
J
9
A
,
River
($19.85)
8
J
9
A
K
,
Villain is a smart regular running at 24/20.
BTN steal - 48%
Cbet flop in SRP - 49%
Fold flop vs donkbet - 30%
Call flop donkbet - 39%
Raise flop donkbet 32%
Fold to turn donkbet - 17%
Some factors to consider:
1) villain doesn't like folding to donkbets
2) our sizing on the river may look like a scared value bet (set or 2pr etc.)
I don't think he's jamming anything less than a flush for value on the river. I would be surprised if he jammed a hand like AK with a diamond for value. I'd also expect just a call from QT. So villain is either turning a hand into a bluff (Ad5x etc, or a hand like 9xTd etc.) or had flopped a flush.
Do you call or fold and why?
Loading 2 Comments...
I'd be less inclined to bluff catch here for a couple of reasons. One is that you block both a Jack and a 9 which are hands that might get to the river and then want to bluff. In the case of 9x it would have to be stuff like 109 or 9x with a big diamond. The second, is that it's tough for villain to call twice with a hand that doesn't pick up either top pair or two pair by the river. If he has a hand like Ad5x many players might just call the river bet at these stakes facing only a 50% pot bet.
That being said, if you have specific player reads or population reads that people are turning lots of made hands in to bluffs, recognizing showdown value well, and generally being aggressive then maybe this is a spot that you look to hero call. Reads matter quite a lot in spots like this.
I really like the explanation above from James...
Short answer: at these stakes, I am folding this almost all of the time, and feeling fine about it.
Sure, QQd or TTd would make nice bluff shoves here, but I just don't think enough players are doing this at these stakes.
Something else to consider: If we are giving this opponent credit for turning a decent number of made hands into a bluff here, then I think we may also have to give him credit to possibly also shove QT for value here.
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