http://pokertools.holdemmanager.com/hand/31066231/replay/

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. 

SB: $50 (100 bb)

BB: $60.68 (121.4 bb)

UTG+1: $50 (100 bb)

UTG+2: $54 (108 bb)

MP1: $56.27 (112.5 bb)

MP2: $44.78 (89.6 bb)

MP3: $55.40 (110.8 bb)

Hero (CO): $146.07 (292.1 bb)

BTN: $72.76 (145.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8h 8s

4 folds, MP3 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, BB raises to $5.75, MP3 folds, Hero calls $4.25

Flop: ($13.25) 3d 6c 8d (2 players)

BB bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50

Turn: ($26.25) Ah (2 players)

BB bets $12.50, Hero calls $12.50

River: ($51.25) Td (2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $121.32 and is all-in, BB folds

Results: $51.25 pot ($2.31 rake)

Final Board: 3d 6c 8d Ah Td 

BB mucked and lost (-$24.75 net)

Hero mucked 8h 8s and won $48.94 ($24.19 net)

This hand was confusing for me because the board changed our ranges drastically on the turn and then again on the river. I'm not sure I'm even getting called by worse on my river jam, it may be a really big mistake. Going to guess the river jam was actually really bad.

Okay, so villain is a guy I have 180 hands on and I've already seen him 3bet ATo in a very similar position. When you're 3betting offsuit aces the combos start to add up really quickly so I'm guessing his range is quite ace heavy here, going to eyeball it around here:

My range for calling is already limited by what I coldcalled with, which will cut a decent amount of what would usually be the top of my calling/4betting range out here:

I feel like I'm meant to call wider against this guy but realistically as I was playing the hand this was pretty much what I was doing.

On the flop we have a little over 4spr, meaning three 1/2p bets pretty much get us all-in by the river. Every time he's 1/2potting if I defend with a 1-A calling range I can let him win 33% of the time so cumulatively I call one bet with 67% of my range, two bets with 45% of my range, and three bets with 30% of my range. That means if the board stays static somehow I'm calling TT and folding 99 on the river to be unexploitable. On the flop I should probably call all overpairs+ and all fds and on the turn I should be down to either overpairs+ and half my fds or I should start folding 99 now and keep more of my fds. I feel like folding 99 is probably the better strategy.

That means he probably wants to set JJ as the bottom of his range to 3barrel for value, as TT is making a losing valuebet on the river. If that's the case he has 24 clear 3barrel combos and with me facing 1/2pot bets I need to win one time out of four (lose half pot, lose half pot, lose half pot, win 1.5 pot ends up even) to make break-even calls so he gets one bluff combo for three value combos. On the river that's 8 bluff combos, on the turn it's an extra 11, and on the flop another 14ish, for 33 bluff combos overall, getting him to 57 or so combos cumulatively.

He gets another bit of value out of TT, maybe just one street though, so that's only another 2 bluff combos. That leaves him checking over half of his range on this board. That seems gross for him but I guess that is what happens when you have such an ace-heavy range on a board with no ace on it. Realistically he probably doesn't actually squeeze with quite so many of the bluff combos as I have him at anyway, but if he's cbetting more than 60-65% on the flop on this board I think I need to look at exploitatively widening my calling range. I'm going to say he checks his 8s and TTs on the flop for simplicity in the rest of the hand and that he barrels with a reasonably balanced range of 58 combos. Conveniently that turns out to be almost exactly all flush draws and all bdfds.

To get my 67% call I just peel all flush draws and bdfds using both holecards (rather than offsuits with a diamond) and my overpairs.

So basically I just lost almost the entire pot on that turn card. My feeling of what is theoretically meant to happen here is that he's meant to bet something like 3/4 pot with every bluff and almost all of his aces+ and that that will effectively win him 90% of the pot with his entire range. Betting less than that seems bad because it lets me call profitably with diamond draws still and his bet wants to drive their equity out. He bets a little less than halfpot which seems wrong. I'm completely abandoning calling 1-A here because he doesn't have enough hands to bluff with in his entire range for me to bluffcatch profitably. Instead my plan vs this bet is to call only my AQ and AJ hands and all of my flushdraws. Against a bigger bet I think I should jam 888 and a couple of flushdraw combos since I can't call them profitably but against this betsize I think I should just call 888... although thinking about it exploitatively is there any way he would actually fold an ace to a jam here? Probably I'm meant to make that exploitative play but range-wise it seems not good. Ehhhhh actually rangewise it's probably good to jam 888 and a couple of fds and call all the other fds.

So then the river comes a diamond and everything gets wonky again. His range is pretty good!:

My range is much much better:

These numbers are actually going to be a bit wonky because flopzilla doesn't remove the blockers in the other person's range from your range. Like a set is actually a bigger part of my range because we share a lot of the flushes.

The river is pretty confusing. Here's what we've got:

I have 3.75 flushes, 2.25 sets, 0.5 two pairs and 1.75 top pairs.

He has 9.5 flushes, 3 sets, 5 two pairs, 27 top pairs, and 3.5 air.

There's almost exactly pot, so a jam should be getting called 50% of the time. However blockers are suuuuch a massive influence on calling range. Like if he has AdQd for the nut flush I literally can't have a single flush anymore. They all have the Ad or Qd in them. Given that he should check/call this combo, it shouldn't even be that hard for him to work it out, I'd need KdJd, Jd9d, or 9d7d exactly due to the way the diamonds on the board and in his hand are spaced and none of those holdings are likely after preflop. If he has a hand like AcQd I have one flush combo and 2.25 set combos, so with this hand he should bluffjam as he's getting folds ~70% of the time. KcQd is even more clear if he has it, I'll have 1 flush, 2.25 sets, 0.5 two pairs, and 1.75 top pairs, so a jam will get a fold over 80% of the time. On the other hand if he has KcQc he's getting called 50%, and if he has AcQc he's getting called almost 65%.

I'm pretty sure my play is to jam just based on blockers? I don't know. I do not have a balanced range. I think I probably can't jam my set for value but I'm not actually sure. He should call with AdQc right? Yeah, it seems like I can jam and get called by Ad and he has enough offsuit combos that that's profitable but also have enough value to allow me to bluff the few hands which are only top pair..........................

I don't know, this hand is hurting my head.