50NL 3-bet pot TP vs 3-barrel
Posted by LeavingWinterBehind
Posted by
LeavingWinterBehind
posted in
Low Stakes
50NL 3-bet pot TP vs 3-barrel
SB: $81.77
BB: $49.96 (Hero)
UTG: $51.37
MP: $50.00
CO: $50.00
SB is a reg and BTN is a fish. I have no sample on SB but FWIW he 3-bet 5/25 SBvBTN.
My thoughts preflop are that I think he is 3-betting wide to isolate the fish and that calling is better that 4-betting to keep the fish in. On the river Im blocking AK, AQ, KK, QQ and JQ. So in game my thought was that I had a good bluffcatcher and decided to call. But after looking into to it after it seems I was way off.
My guess is he bets for value with : AK(9),TT, JJ, AA, 89s (32 combos) .
The bluffs that gets to the river might be: Axcc, 50% of Kxcc, 97cc , A9s (19 combos).
So I need to be right 42% of the time when I call. If he shoves all of his bluffs his just bluffing 37% of the time.
Adding that 50NL regs are'nt balanced and very weighted to value when 3 barreling this should be a very clear fold. It actually surprised me.
I would like to hear your opinions on my assumptions, calculations and reasonings.
Loading 7 Comments...
Against nl50 players and given your overall strongish range. Quite standard fold
It make some sense to call, given our bluffcather is decent. But population wont bluff that spot with right freq to call. I'm not even sure, KK is a shove for villian or no
Probably not and I think villain should just check entire range on the flop.
I don't cold call 3bet in BB myself in high rake games and KQo is significantly too weak to play here. You should mostly just continue with AQo+, QJs, KJs+, ATs+ and 99+. With that range you can safely fold most TP by the river and I don't think many regs will try to bluff you more often than at equilibrium on that texture and rather less.
agreed btn being a fish still wouldn't incentives a call from me
I mean as a call. It's a decent hand to use as a cold 4bet "bluff" if you expect to get a decent amount of folds.
not sure about your 42%.
by the river, its 30/(40+30+30), so you need him to bluff that river more then 30% to show a profit bluffcatching.
given your own range when u cold call pre and the board, i find it very unlikely for vilain to bluff like that on the river nearly enough of the time.
I'd rather cold 4b here than cold call his 3b. As played, you have to put yourself in villains shoes - he is tripling into a range that hits this board - you have JJ, QQ, TT, AK. Trying to barrel you off that is dangerous so I assume his range is strong here. River is a fold for me.
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