$50HUNL - Thin value bet this river?
Posted by Marrek
Posted by
Marrek
posted in
Low Stakes
$50HUNL - Thin value bet this river?
SB: $50
BB: $102.14 (Hero)
BB: $102.14 (Hero)
Villain is loose passive, playing 63% of hands from the bb.
Cbets only 56%, low AF/agg on every street. Folds vs x/r 65%
Cbets only 56%, low AF/agg on every street. Folds vs x/r 65%
Preflop
($0.75)
(2 Players)
Hero was dealt
8
9
SB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.50
SB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.50
Flop
($2.25)
6
5
J
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
SB bets $0.99,
Hero raises to $3.50,
SB calls $2.51
I have backdoor equity, no showdown value, the board is dry and he does fold to x/r's, so i'm doing this regularly.
Turn
($9.25)
6
5
J
J
(2 Players)
Hero bets $5,
SB calls $5
I bink a decent turn card.
his flop calling range should be JX, 78, 34, 47, 77, 6X, 5X (maybe)
I bet small'ish expecting him to raise me with a Jack, and probably fold most junk, thinking 5X, 6X and 77 should be folding. I don't like it now. I think i should have betr $7 and convince his smaller pairs to fold.
his flop calling range should be JX, 78, 34, 47, 77, 6X, 5X (maybe)
I bet small'ish expecting him to raise me with a Jack, and probably fold most junk, thinking 5X, 6X and 77 should be folding. I don't like it now. I think i should have betr $7 and convince his smaller pairs to fold.
River
($19.25)
6
5
J
J
9
(2 Players)
so he flats the turn and I think my sizing makes it hard to eliminate hands from his range. Can i value bet this river? I don't think 6X/77 can call.
Villain is passive... so just x/f this river?
Loading 6 Comments...
Flop is good but i think u did wrong judgement, if he fold 65% to c/r he will never call 5x 6x, same as 77 88 etc, i think only sets, good jacks and 78mb and overpairs, so OTT he can fold any OESD but u beat it anyway, and u said he is passive so just check turn and try to hit free str8 on the river.
calling with 35% of a wide range means he has to be calling a bunch of weak pairs. In order for villain to call with 39% on this board, he would have to call with every pair 22+
edit, oesd and gsd make up 5% of his range, so we can add those in and remove 22, 33, 44, and maybe 5x.
If Villain folds 65% to x/r, I think he probably has a range that looks something like: a pair (5x, 6x, Jx, 22, 33, 44, 77, 88), OESD (34, 78, 47), sets (55, 66), and maybe ace high floating (?) once he calls our flop c/raise.
OTT, we beat his OESD and have decent equity against is smaller pairs. Do you think he will fold his pairs to our turn bet? If so, shouldn't we just bet larger OTT to maximize fold equity?
As played, I'd either x/f or x/c OTR depending on whether or not you believe Villain is capable of bluffing missed flush/straight draws.
If he peeled the flop with a 6 or 5, I don't think he'll fold it on the turn to this sizing. It's less of a bluff and more of a blocker bet, which may succeed in getting us a cheap-ish river. But since he's passive he'd probably check back mid pairs anyway, so I don't think it's necessary. I think either check, or bet bigger to gain fold equity against worse than Jx, would make more sense. Against some villains we could even consider check-raising the turn, but I don't think that's wise against someone who's passive/straightforward. On river, check-decide, most probably check-fold.
hi at all,
why do you think that he cbets 22 33 44 5x 6x. he cbets only 56%, a good portion of his weak-sd-value-hands checkbehind on the flop imo. As a standard i would say his bet/call-range looks like Jx+, 77-TT A6 K6 Q6 J6 and Draws (78 34 47 gs). Most madehands of this range call the turn especially to a small bet, 34 78 fd may call as well.
on the river:
you bet --> 6x 77 88 34 are going to fold; trips, boats, 78 TT call/raise
you can see a bet do not make much sense, worse hands will fold, better hands will call/raise you
i assume most of his worse hands check behind on the river, and there a not many busted draws, therefore ich think ch/f is the best play
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