500z bet facing a shove
Posted by Jeff_
Posted by
Jeff_
posted in
Mid Stakes
500z bet facing a shove
Blinds: $2.50/$5.00 (6 Players)
BN: $572.65 (Hero)
SB: $997.65
BB: $576.44
UTG: $500.00
MP: $566.54
CO: $634.76
SB: $997.65
BB: $576.44
UTG: $500.00
MP: $566.54
CO: $634.76
Preflop
($7.50)
Hero is BN with
Q
J
, , , ,
Flop
($88.05)
9
8
Q
, ,
Turn
($132.55)
9
8
Q
5
, , ,
Vs reg
Value - some slowplays JT/99/88 bluffs KJ/AJ/AT could be QJ/QThh T9hh
Loading 6 Comments...
Think we have a call here even when you give villain full freq on 88-99,TJs and only the heart combos to jam AThh,AJhh,KThh,KJhh etc you then have the equity to call
They're calling about $410 to win a total pot of around $1150. They need $410/$1150 ≈ 36% equity to make the river call.
They have maybe 26% equity against the range you described.
It does seems close, hard to tell how OOP playing. Will he always x/R flop with JT/99/88 and what about AT/AJ KJ/KT??
In my opinion OOP should close to pure x/R sets+ and bluff those KJ/KT because It could be a case that IP close eyes and bet range on the flop.Thats actually reason why I called, he certainly could be way overbluffing here (always value x/R flop but got KJhh on the turn and decided to jam those thinking have fold equity and IP have hard time calling anything except a nuts)
Ive looked those gto sims, they give my combo ~0EV, but OOP turn strategy is quite complex so I am not giving much into that (human will never be able to replicate them)
Only thing I have to add here, is something i observe quite often, is that I see regs slow play stuff in spots where maybe they shouldn’t, maybe operating under the hopeful
Assumption that the aggressor will continue aggression or go thin or get out of line, and also to add levels of deception. I caught myself doing this very thing in a spot a couple weeks ago at 2-5, and have since noticed it in other thinking players shoes. Might be more of a live tendency with a weaker pool, but it’s possible. Think the best way to assess this is to estimate his range and plug it into flopzilla as well as get feedback.
What do you think of checking turn with a combo like this?
Dont like checking and I think it is weaktight, prefer betfold than check. Here we can apply common concept when QJ is betting and KQ/AQ more often check than bet. QJ need more protection and have equity to a nuts.
Dont like slowplaying either, maybe at some low%, but min x/R seems better to me. Well slowplay could be good if IP would blast off on the turn (doubt this is happening in real life, people are somewhat straightforward here) or IP bet/call hands which he should fold (could be)
I don't really see the value in barreling this. Could you help me understand.
i view his range as being like AQs, KQs, some JT, some 98s, some 99/88, and then some QTs, T9s, and then some backdoor combos/flop gutters etc that have very little equity/hit a heart FD, but not many, and alot of them just have little equity. It looks like to me that there are quite a few better hands that we value cut against with a bet, when we only collect a little bit of equity. It also makes for an okay bluffcatcher. It's also not the nuts, KJ is.
Not saying I'm right, just curious what is leading to think a turn check is not as good as barrel, because I don't see it.
EDIT: actually, looking closer I can see it. There are still QTs in his range, A9hh, T9s, some 87s, KJhh, AThh, AJhh, and then all the gutters and random pieces of equity.
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