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500nlZ, debatable turn raise, now need a river size

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

500nlZ, debatable turn raise, now need a river size

BN: $500
SB: $500
BB: $500
UTG: $732.55
HJ: $551.79 (Hero)
CO: $505
Preflop ($7.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $10, CO calls $10, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Villain is a decent 24/20, cold calls 6% in this position.
Flop ($27.50) A Q 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $17.06, Hero calls $17.06
Check to check call as that's what I'd do with most of my range VS this opponent. He's not passive, so AJ gets bet a couple of streets, as do flushdraws, and we give 99 etc an opportunity to make a set.
Turn ($61.62) A Q 7 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $44.13, Hero raises to $147.50, CO calls $103.37
Sort of an exploito-balanced CR. Basically, his betsize indicated to me that he wasn't planning to bet the river a high % of the time. So put his hand range as AJ type stuff for the most part. Given this, I think it makes sense to CR nuts and bluffs at this point.
River ($356.62) A Q 7 5 4 (2 Players)
Having got here, what betsize should we be looking at? Shoving felt overly strong given our blockers, check felt like it gives AK AJ a chance to get away free, and like 1/3 or something felt meh.

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