5-5 premature jam or +ev jam

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5-5 premature jam or +ev jam

We are playing 3handed live

Hero (BTN) - $1700
(SB) - $1200
Villian (BB) - $850

Villian has been playing relatively tight, but is capable of playing back at you, (sb) is very maniacal and opens all (btn). (sb) hasn't been 3 betting too much oop

Hero - 6h7h opens for 25
sb calls
villian calls

Flop
6c6d5c
hero leads for 45
sb folds
villian (bb) x/r to 150, hero calls

Turn
3s
villian (bb) bets 325
hero calls

this is where i feel like I played the hand wrong. In retrospect I think a jam here is better then a call. Villians perceived range is all flush draws, pp 77-10 maybe JJ at best, and all 6x's. I don't feel like he is x/r'ing with a flopped boat here. At the time I felt he was weighted more towards a pp so I did not want to make it tough for him on the turn, and was going to jam all non club rivers, making it looked like i missed, but I regret not jamming simply because if he had a FD he was committed to call, If he has a pp he may or may not call and with any 6x i am basically losing too. Only beating 64 and 62 both very not likely. But I feel that even if he has a 6x I still have some equity in the hand as oppose to a tough spot on river where my equity is 0.

River
Js
Villian jams for $350
Hero after some long thought called cause of the price. Getting slightly over 4-1

Villian shows ks6s

now my question is as played can I fold this river for the price I am getting? Very likely he has 6x now after jamming river or even JJ, don't see him jamming less for value. Maybe a small chance he's trying to push me off thinking i missed my draw.

would jamming the turn been a better play considering stack sizes?
now what if we were deeper, what would be optimal on the turn then?

I appreciate your response

17 Comments

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BigFiszh 12 years ago
Jamming is just what makes us feeling better after getting smashed K6 into our face on the river. From the theoretical standpoint there is absolutely no reason to jam the turn.

There are two possible advantages that come to my mind that would make shoving turn better:

1) We could get Villain paying off with a flush draw where he might x/f the river when missed - but I think that´s unlikely to happen in that combination, either he doesn´t have the fd or he´ll likely fire away anyways (his last chance to win the pot).

2) We prevent from getting bluffed on the river. That would demand though that we´re folding to a rivershove - which won´t happen.
WM2K 12 years ago
"Jamming is just what makes us feeling better after getting smashed K6 into our face on the river. From the theoretical standpoint there is absolutely no reason to jam the turn."

I think I d feel worse jamming and getting smashed by K6 because I made a bad play that isolated myself vs better and shut down his potential for bluffing. :D
fush.arsi 12 years ago
i think this hand is a cooler. jaming turn i think you polarize his hand and you're extracting value only from 64. all the other hands you beat are folding here and you're getting called by bigger sixes or a full house
nutinsider 12 years ago
Yea, I can see how calling turn to let him bluff if he misses is fine, and since we arent folding to any river bet and wont get called by worse on turn shove, why jam, right? I just think hes never folding to a min raise after betting turn. But yea, I can see how just flatting and check calling any river is prolly better.
raiser_burn 12 years ago
From the sound of it it seems pretty close from all you opinions. I feel there is a lot more value lost by not jamming the turn, because you lose value from all his fd hands which are commited and if it so happens to be a cooler to any 6x at least you still have equity in the hand, why call off when you have 0% equity on river if he does have 6x. The only down side is you push off his pp sometimes, but im keeping in mind that you are not pushing away his pp 100% of the time, so there is some additional value in putting it in on turn.

BigFiszh - after I flat pretty much pot, do you really believe that he jams river with his entire range? I was the preflop raiser and made it to the river with him. I am pretty strong after flatting the turn. And hes not a terrible player. If that is the case then I don't mind just calling the turn. But if hes checking back all busted fd and x/c or c/f his pp then I prefer the turn jam
BigFiszh 12 years ago
Seriously, before I´m jamming the turn, I´d fold the turn. The reason being that I strongly doubt that he has enough flush draws in his range that play that way. I´d just say that you´re pretty much toast vs. his turn-calling-range once you jam. So, why jamming at all? Finally, if he somehow elected to x/r the flop with some kind of draw, his equity on the turn isn´t overwhelming. If you jam, he needs slightly more than 20%, that´s even more than a naked flush draw has, so he´s by far not "committed" to call.

As I said, it´s more a fold than a jam for me. If you still disagree, let´s make a model. Come up with a range for him and we´ll construct an EV-calculation for jamming vs. calling.
nutinsider 12 years ago
Live I see a lot of people fall into "I want to protect my marginal pair from overcards" syndrome and go spewtastic with 99 in this spot, cause afterall, 99 is an overpair, and we are short handed! The reason I don't think it's too out of line to ship turn is because it's not unreasonable for him to lead out with an overpair type hand thinking we floated one bet and trying way to hard to "protect his pair" And no, even if we raise his turn bet (which is clearly super strong) I still don't assume a live player will fold a 88-jj holding where the all in is less than the initial turn bet. All this being said, I do thing flatting is a little better, but I don't thing its like super super better and clear like some others feel.

Hey bigfish, as far as inputting the villains range, I thing the OP's perceived range seems pretty spot on, lets try that and see what the calculation says? I'm interested, thanks.

(I think we need to consider adding 78 to his range)
nma 12 years ago
Just because you're playing live doesn't mean people are over playing over pairs in that spot.... I play live a lot and I see players become super cautious with an over pair in this spot. It is SUPER player dependant. Not many people are going to think their over pair is good here and x/r / bet / jam thinking they are good and that you're on a draw. Also you can discount some hands like 10s and jacks as they are likely to 3 bet pre flop. I think jamming the turn is a huge mistake. You beat very few hands for value, and you want him to continue his bluffs (if he has any). His turn bet is huge, which makes me think he's probably pretty strong here (again, very play dependant. I've had reads on aggro players who play their draws this way, as they think I would fold). However, Since you claim villain is a tight player, I doubt he would make this pot size bet with drawing hands. I would strongly consider folding this turn. Once you call however, I don't think you're ever folding the river for $350. (This is something you need to consider when you're calling off his turn bet)
raiser_burn 12 years ago
Hey BigFiszh I am also curious in the calculation, so how does my hand fair against his perceived range?

fd - we can probably discount about half of them (i.e 26, 39, J2, etc.)
6x
PP - 77-JJ, I feel like hes 3betting QQ+ 100% of time, so we will leave those out.
78 off

Jamming ev?
Calling ev?

and im curious as to what our calling ev is on the river. considering to variables i guess
1) he never jams his busted draws
2) he jams his entire range
BigFiszh 12 years ago
OK, let´s assume the following range:

JJ-55,A6s,K6s,Q6s,J6s,T6s,96s,86s,76s,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,AcTc,KcTc,QcTc,JcTc,Ac9c,Kc9c,Qc9c,Jc9c,Tc9c,Ac8c,Kc8c,Qc8c,Jc8c,Tc8c,9c8c,Ac7c,Kc7c,Qc7c,Jc7c,Tc7c,9c7c,8c7c,Ac5c,Kc5c,Ac4c,Kc4c,Ac3c,Kc3c,Ac2c,Kc2c,62o+

That´s all 6x, JJ-77, 55, and a ton of flush draw combos for a total of 80 combos.

Let´s further assume, once we jam the turn:

- he´s not folding any 6x (20 combos)
- he´s folding roughly 75% of his overpairs (21 of 30 combos)
- he´s folding 50% of his flush draws, because he can´t profitably call with a naked flush draw (15 of 30 combos)

If we check the turn, he´s shoving the river with:

- 100% of his better 6x (18 combos)
- 100% of his worse 6x (2 combos)
- 100% of his flushes on club river (30 combos)
- 50% of his busted draws on non-club river (15 of 30 combos)
- 0% of his overpairs on club-river (0 of 30 combos)
- 25% of his overpairs on non-club river (9 of 30 combos)

He´s x/f the rest.

Say, we´re calling any non-club-river (except 7c).

Ok, let´s compare the EV.

If we shove (675), the total pot after him calling will be 1725, we have ~62% against his calling-range:

EV (jam) = 0.62*1725 - 675 = +394.50

Now let´s compare the more difficult spot of us calling. Three scenarios happening:

a) flush card hits - Villain shoves 6x / flush / better, we fold
b) flush card hits - Villain checks overpairs, we check
c) blank hits - Villain shoves (busted draws, overpairs, 6x), we call
d) blank hits - Villain checks, we check

How often do those scenarios happen?

Scenario a) happens in 15% (flush card hits) * 50/80 = 9%.
Scenario b) happens in 15% * 30/80 = 6%.
Scenario c) happens in 85% * 44/80 = 47%.
Scenario d) happens in 85% * 36/80 = 38%.

In scenario a) we´re folding and lose our turncall (325). In scenario b) we win 100% and win turn-pot plus turnbet from Villain (375+325=700). In scenario c) we win the turn-pot plus turn- and riverbet from Villain (375+325+350=1050) in 26/44 (60%) and lose our turn- and riverbet (325+350=675) in 18/44 (40%), in scenario d) we win the turn-pot plus Villains turnbet (375+325=700) in 100%.

Let´s construct the EV-calculation:

EV (check) = (0.09 * -325) + (0.06 * +700) + (0.47 * ((0.6 * 1050) + (0.4 * -675))) + (0.38 * 700)
EV (check) = +447.95

OK, that´s what I got. I did NOT manipulate anything in my assumptions to get a "positive" result or to prove that I´m right. I just made the assumptions and then calculated the result. And it seems that flatting the turn actually yields an EV-difference of almost 10bb. That´s not gigantic, but it´s significant.

Now, let me know if you disagree with any of my assumptions (and why) or if I made any mistakes in my calculation (hopefully not, but I did not doublecheck it, so chances are good :D).

EDIT: But all that said - I kinda disagree with the given range (although I took it as the base for my calculation). This is a live game, not online. There´s no digital information showing the size of the pot - there´s just a mountain of chips in the middle and Villain (if he´s good) can roughly estimate the size of the pot from the bets that went in on previous streets. And most live players, even live regulars (!) tend to choose a betsize that feels correct for the situation in absolute terms - not in relation to the pot.

So 325 is just a gigantic bet for a 5-5-game. This most likely is far more often a bet designed to protect a good hand than a bet to bluff Hero off a good hand. So I´d massively reduce the drawing-combos from his range, leaving a range that´s far more 6x-heavy than most of you possibly assumed - and making flatting even more better than shoving (as it already was against his draw-heavy range). Hence why I mentioned that folding would be closer than jamming (not that I suggested folding - I just said that fold > shove).
BigFiszh 12 years ago
Normally I use CardrunnersEV, but the above-mentioned calculation I did with pen, paper and excel. :-)
raiser_burn 12 years ago
Thanks for the response. I guess its close, like you said 10bb is not huge but it does make that much of a difference in the long haul. Thanks for the post all, made my decision to flat on the turn feel much better now
raiser_burn 12 years ago
oh BigFiszh, by the way I forgot to mention, it was live but with the video poker machines. So basically it was a mix of online and live, everyone has their own screen and one community screen in the middle,, we still sit around the table and can get physical tells, but there are no chips in play and betting is all done with numbers

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