4bp: QQ on J98 2tone facing del cbet IP
Posted by ohgodwhy
Posted by
ohgodwhy
posted in
Low Stakes
4bp: QQ on J98 2tone facing del cbet IP
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
MP: $25.00
CO: $30.84 (Hero)
BN: $31.47
SB: $43.99
BB: $35.57
UTG: $19.02
CO: $30.84 (Hero)
BN: $31.47
SB: $43.99
BB: $35.57
UTG: $19.02
villain 21/14/3b 2 over 120 hands
cbet flop: 3/8
cbet OOP: 1/6
cbet flop: 3/8
cbet OOP: 1/6
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is CO with
Q
Q
, , , , ,
Flop
($9.75)
J
8
9
,
Turn
($9.75)
J
8
9
3
What should our calling range in that spot be? QQ really is pretty much the top of my range here but I still don't think I'm hardly ever good if he shoves river.
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If we folding QQ here, we calling 4bet only for set, that not a grate idea. We don't have 88-JJ in 3bet range and QQ close to top of our range on this board. And I think it will be the same on not K/A boards.
usually he won't slowplay sets on this board also why would he slowplay AA-KK on this wet board stats are one thing but they vary depending on board texture. I would assume after his X on flop he has some poor sdv that is switching his hand into bluff sometimes you may find him slowplaying but i don't think he slowplays a lot on that particular board.
if he is so tight maybe you should make more polarized 3betting range + sometimes floating his open with QQ also
The thing is, I don't expect the average 25NL reg with these stats to check flop and then decide to bet, shove AK offsuit. OTOH I wouldn't at all be surprised if he showed up with KK+ reasonably often, especially taking a look at his cbet stats. I mean, sure, flatting (or already 4betting QQ pre) is questionable if I don't feel comfortable calling off on some runouts but I'm totally questioning my preflop play or plan in general, too. I don't wanna fall into the trap of justifying cuspy to bad calls in practice because they are clearly +ev vs a better, more balanced, more bluffheavy player pool or even in theory. If that means I should be flatting QQ pre, fine, I'm totally up for debate.
If OTOH you think I'm to pessimistic and QQ is a close but still profitable calldown in spots like these, I'm also open to that opinion.
To decide wether or not to 3-bet QQ pre you should look at his RFI. Vs a 21/14 I think 3betting is still better than just calling. As I said in another thread, you have to estimate villain's range and try to get to a mathematical conclusion. Without making assumptions about his range its really hard to come up with an answer because 4-bet pots are played with very narrow ranges (and very different from player to player) so few extra combos (or few less combos) in each players range would give us complete different results. First thing to do is estimate his range and see how much equity you have versus that. Im on my phone right now but I can say that his line looks pretty value heavy. I can see KK+ beein played like this always, and I expect most 4-bet blufs like KQo, KJo, AQo to c-bet this board and go from there. Also, his AXs are mostly giving up, definitely not taking a X B line on flop/turn
I like the 3bet and the call, we have decent odds and we are IP, I agree with Saulo about the line of the villain, but I would call ott either way
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