4bet pot: is it a river vbet?
Posted by BOE
Posted by
BOE
posted in
Mid Stakes
4bet pot: is it a river vbet?
Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (4 Players)
SB: $307.63
BB: $200.00
CO: $403.63 (Hero)
BN: $241.69
BB: $200.00
CO: $403.63 (Hero)
BN: $241.69
Preflop
($3.00)
Hero is CO with
A
A
, , , , ,
Flop
($78.50)
K
2
6
, ,
Turn
($138.50)
K
2
6
J
, ,
River
($250.50)
K
2
6
J
6
,
Villain is a regular.
I was thinking either vbet or not in this spot OTR. His range OTR should be something like this : 6 AK, 4 flush ( AcQc,AcTc,QcTc,Tc9c9), 6 set (KK,JJ), 3 KJs, 1 AA, 3QcQx, TOT 23 combos. Now which of these does he call? imho: 3 AcKx, 4 flush, 6 set, 1 AA (idk KJ) = 14 combos.
Therefore 60.87% call and 39.13 fold. When he folds I win: 0.3913125.25BB ~ 49BB. When he calls, 3 times I win (AcKx): (3/14)308.63BB=+66.135BB, 1 time split pot= 0 and 10 times I lose (10/14)* 91.69BB~65.49BB.
Whenever he calls I win 66.135-65.49= +0.645BB
Therefore by my calculation it should be a value bet. Do you agree?
Loading 17 Comments...
You win vs AK KQ KJ you loose vs KK/JJ 65s seems a pretty easy value bet
What about flushes? If you put in his range 56s you have to add also 67s, 7h8h,8h9h. Besides we are 150x deep and it isn't sure that he calls with all AK combos, KQ Imho it's always a fold, idk KJ.
Imho 150x it isn't a so easy vbet there.
Valuebet for sure.
Yeah, I'm valuebetting here.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but as you mention in OP, when we bet and get a fold (Hero bets, fold) we expect to win (.3913)(125.25) = 49bb
If we compare this to what we expect to win when we check: we win at showdown vs 12 of 23 combos, so (12/23)(125.25) = 65bb
So for betting to be better than checking, would we not have to make enough such that the expectation when we bet and are called is greater than 65bb? And 49.65bb aint gonna cut it...
Also, it doesn't make intuitive sense that, given we never get better to fold, and when called we are good less than half the time, for it to be a profitable bet.
Just my two pennies though.
When we check 10/23 we lose though. Then the EV when we check is:(12/23)(125.25) - (10/23)(125.25) =+10.89bb
However when we bet the EV is 49.65. So bet>check. Is it right?
The EV of a check here is just our showdown equity, which is our share of the pot. So for betting>checking, we must gain more than 65bb from betting river.
Given your ranges, I did simple CREV simulation.
Even if villain is calling all his KJs, EV of jamming = 63.5bb (variance 151)
EV of checking back = 67.6bb (variance 65)
But villain should also have all KQs. If he starts calling all of them OTR, then EV of jamming = 81, checking back = 74.
So, there is no much value in jamming and it seems to be a more high-variance play. Unless villain has more Kx to call OTR and less slowplayed KK preflop.
I saw your simulation, but you've changed the original range, you've added all AK combos in his calling range and you took away AA.
Well, given the fact that we block 8 AK combos and K on the board block 2 more combos, he has 6 combos anyway. I added AA but result is the same.
I had put only 3/6 AK combos with Ac In his range in OP
Are ppl thinking this deep about shit at 200nl? Anyway especially vs co vs sb ranges I'd discount kk quite a bit
I would 4bet bigger, we are deep and dont look too strong because we do not pot comitt us yet, we also set up easier postflop + I think 4bet calling ranges are static anyways. As played, betting river is fine.
It is somewhat close but I'd valuebet, I would expect you to have like 55% equity versus villains calling range (depends heavily on how often he plays AK like this. Might go under 50% if he never has AK, goes above 60% if he has every possible combo of AK).
And yeah, 4bet sizing could be bigger. I'd go 42-46 probably.
And btw, when you valuebet, it is obviously +ev, but it has to be more +ev than checking.
Against the given calling range OTR: 3 AcKx, 4 flush, 6 set, 1 AA (idk KJ) = 14 combos. We do have 25%, so Check>Bet? We can make some small TVBR? +1 for the bigger 4B pre that deep.
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