4bet pot: is it a river vbet?
Posted by BOE
Posted by
BOE
posted in
Mid Stakes
4bet pot: is it a river vbet?
Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (4 Players)
SB: $307.63
BB: $200.00
CO: $403.63 (Hero)
BN: $241.69
BB: $200.00
CO: $403.63 (Hero)
BN: $241.69
Preflop
($3.00)
Hero is CO with
A
A
, , , , ,
Flop
($78.50)
K
2
6
, ,
Turn
($138.50)
K
2
6
J
, ,
River
($250.50)
K
2
6
J
6
,
Villain is a regular.
I was thinking either vbet or not in this spot OTR. His range OTR should be something like this : 6 AK, 4 flush ( AcQc,AcTc,QcTc,Tc9c9), 6 set (KK,JJ), 3 KJs, 1 AA, 3QcQx, TOT 23 combos. Now which of these does he call? imho: 3 AcKx, 4 flush, 6 set, 1 AA (idk KJ) = 14 combos.
Therefore 60.87% call and 39.13 fold. When he folds I win: 0.3913125.25BB ~ 49BB. When he calls, 3 times I win (AcKx): (3/14)308.63BB=+66.135BB, 1 time split pot= 0 and 10 times I lose (10/14)* 91.69BB~65.49BB.
Whenever he calls I win 66.135-65.49= +0.645BB
Therefore by my calculation it should be a value bet. Do you agree?
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