400nl River decision vs fish

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400nl River decision vs fish

PFR is a tag reg(100bb), other player is a fish(50bb). 

UTG 12.00 I call MP 8h8s, CO BTN SB fold, Fish BB calls


Flop 9s4h3h(38.00)

BB checks, PFR bets 28.00 Hero calls Fish calls


Tu 9h (121.00)

BB checks, PFR checks, I 44.00 fish calls PFR folds

River Kd(209.00)

BB checks (111.00 eff) Hero?

Pre and flop seem standard.  Turn I choose to bet small to fold out pfr's equity (as he's almost always check/folding) as well as get value from some of fish's 3x/4x/khQ floats.  I also expect him to be fairly face up vs my turn bet and on rivers, so I think a lot of his 9x/flush combos are eliminated when he checks and hands like TT+ probably 3bet pre given his 14% 3b freq.  So, can I get away with a thinnish? value bet?


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