400bb pot river decision w Nutflush
Posted by DatpKay
Posted by
DatpKay
posted in
Mid Stakes
400bb pot river decision w Nutflush
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players)
BN: $122.01
SB: $174.63
BB: $201.63 (Hero)
UTG: $433.04
MP: $280.78
CO: $86.56
SB: $174.63
BB: $201.63 (Hero)
UTG: $433.04
MP: $280.78
CO: $86.56
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is BB with
A
K
, , , , ,
Flop
($42.00)
5
4
5
, , ,
Turn
($88.58)
5
4
5
8
,
River
($178.10)
5
4
5
8
Q
So,
EP is new and seems taggish with linearly ascending raise first in stats for his first 200 hands I have on him, not more info.
SB is a preflop nit who coldcalls too much and I don't have any more real info on
PRE is clear
The flop is debatable
..if checked to: do you cbet here? How big?
As played I intuitively like my turnbet even though I feel we don't have that much foldequity vs any better hand
OTR I have 120$ and am a little bit lost, which is funny and stupid because I liked my turnbet...
I sort of feel we can't shove - but can we check call?
Kind regards and thx!!
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Villain has a number of full houses here, but also potentially some A5s, 65s, and 76s, which he plays the same way. However, by far the largest part of Villain's range is bluff catchers: I don't see him folding many 66,77,99-JJ (maybe 87s) before the river. Those hands make up more than half of his range for sure, and they will/should look you up with some frequency.
Jamming is straightforward. You will get called by better sometimes, and that sucks, but you will be ahead more than behind. If you check, Villain will just check back bluff catchers and bet value hands. Unless Villain is good enough to turn 66/77 into a bluff, you will be in a tough spot. I'm still never folding, but you can avoid this spot by just betting.
Size the turn bigger. You indeed have very little fold equity this way, given that Villain's worst hands have gutshots to go with them.
Thanks!
Well, wether or not he gladly calls >50% with a worse hand is sort of hard to tell I guess.
Odds yes but for most poeple 120BB are 120BB and it is also quite hard for us to come up with bluffshoves here in this spot I think.
Just as an example:
Board: 4h5s5c8cQc
Equity Win Tie
UTG 41.66% 41.66% 0.00% { QQ+, 88, 55-44, A5s, 76s, 65s }
BB 58.34% 58.34% 0.00% { AcKc }
This would be great. Question obviously is how much AA/KK he really has.
It's hard for him to have any other flush really than 67 of clubs, due to the 8c coming and us having the AcKc.
Another question is how many 67s and 5x he would not raise on the turn.
And it already get thinner if we account for AA getting 5b some of the time pre and KK not calling all the time.
Board: 4h5s5c8cQc
Equity Win Tie
UTG 47.64% 47.64% 0.00% { 88, 55-44, AdAh, KdKs, KhKs, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, A5s, 76s, 65s }
BB 52.36% 52.36% 0.00% { AcKc }
All in all and more and more I am pondering to maybe check/call the turn to allow more random floats to bluff, get more info off of him, be more often ahead when a bet goes in on the turn in contrast to being called by him.
I prefer larger sizing on the flop - it´s pretty dry board and only we have 5x hands - 65s, A5s, maybe 75s, 54s . I don´t know EP´s PF deffending range but I don´t think that he has to defend 65s, A5s 3way...probably he hasn´t to defend 88.
Turn is blank so I prefer this sizing - other opportunity is imo x/shove - against players who will steb too much.
Reasons why I prefer shove river:
I´m pretty sure that the larges part of EP´s range are bluff catchers.
I don´t see peoples turning their made hands (66, 77, 99) into bluffs.
We are so high in our range..I think this is the best hand in this spot (I don´t know if we have 54s).
If Villian defends 5x PF or 76s etc., we will get calls by worst.
I don't know,
why make it bigger on the flop when with that sizing we have a pretty geometrical 120 into ~180 shove on the river?!
With our range on this structure with the preflop action we don't really need to "protect" vs anything, do we?
I think because we have really big range advantage and we want to be more polarized...polarized isn´t maybe good word but we want to push opponents cappted range - main part of bluffcatchers are something like 77-JJ + he has lots of broadways. On the turn we can overbet shove or x/shove.
No, I don´t think we need lots of protection but we want to push opponent´s bluffcatchers with pretty big range advantage.
I dont think he's such capped as u say, and we dont have "really big" range advantage imo. Just the flop is better for 3bettors range. He's just somewhat capped, but some of his bluffcathers are even better than some of our value hands on flop and turn. I agree with that we are too high in our range to not value bet, this is second best value combo we could have otr
It doesn’t make sense to bet bigger on a dry board. You wouldn’t do that with your value bets, and it’s not a good strategy to use different bet sizes for value bets and bluffs.
I would prefer betting smaller on the flop and make a larger (relative to the pot) bet on the turn. A 1/3 pot sized bet on the flop accomplishes the same as a 1/2 pot sized one, but leaves you room to bet full pot on both turn and river, giving your opponent a very difficult decision with her middle pairs.
I think you have to push the river. Villain can have a straight, a smaller flush, or a rivered top-pair all of which call almost always, as well as a number of bluff catchers that call sometimes.
I'm super happy to shove river for value, is it just me?:D I dont see that many boats in villain range.If hes defending correct he should have 88, and qq only (If hes stacking qq pre the spot even more better)
He have alot more 66,77,99,1010,jj in spot I think
But for valuebetting it's not just about what he has, but what he is going to call
If hes calling only boats u can profitably barrel atc
His ranges is very pp's , cs suited heavy.
If you don't think he's able to call you down with any 56s 66 77 99 TT and JJ, it's an easy x behind.
Without strong reads, we are happy to value bet this river. with AQ and better
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