4€ NL - weak overpair versus TAG aggression on wet board

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4€ NL - weak overpair versus TAG aggression on wet board

Opponent identified as TAG (VPIP 20-30%, PFR > 15%) after about 30 hands.
My table image is in same range.

Welcome all comments on the line prior, especially the decision re: check/snap-call vs shoving the turn

Run It Once Poker, Hold'em No Limit - €0.02/€0.04 - 5 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG: €4.70 (118 bb)
CO (Hero): €4.02 (101 bb)
BU: €6.44 (161 bb)
SB: €6.23 (156 bb)
BB: €4.47 (112 bb)

Pre-Flop: (€0.06) Hero is CO with 9♠s 9♥h
1 fold, Hero raises to €0.10, BTN calls €0.10, 2 players fold

Flop: (€0.26) 8♣c 4♣c 7♥h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets €0.19, Hero raises to €0.61, BTN raises to €1.35, Hero calls €0.74

Turn: (€2.96) 3♠s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets €2.79, Hero....?

.... I'll follow up after some discussion with the results and more on my line of reasoning for picking the line I did, I welcome others thoughts first though!

5 Comments

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RaoulFlush 4 years, 11 months ago

Im leading towards folding the flop 3bet i guess. Im ok with X/raising this one, but i dont wanna stack off here in a single raised Pot. B/F or X/C flop seems also reasonable to me....

AlphaLackey 4 years, 11 months ago

My thought process was that there would be a lot of pair+draws in his value range, as there's just the nine set combos and the three 87s combos (he did flat a raise) but lots of 76s and 54s and "overcards + FD" with or without a gutshot.

Basically, putting myself in his situation, I know there's a lot of hands that are long-term favorites against top pair (but aren't 'ahead' currently) that I'd play as fast as I'd play a set, and assumed him being a TAG meant he'd be thinking the same.

Before I get into the results, how do you feel about that thought process? It sounds like you think the 3 bet effectively eliminates those hands from his range.

RaoulFlush 4 years, 11 months ago

Seems like i was wrong about this spot. what do you hink of the following range? 3betting every OESD/2pair/set/straight/Top Pair and NFD:

AlphaLackey 4 years, 11 months ago

I'm not sure which number represents my equity against this range: am I the 60% equity or the 40% equity? But your assessment of his hands looks okay, maybe not the K8s or the Ax suited, as I can see the K8 being folded and the Ax suiteds being bluff-3bet preflop (that's a pretty standard hand to 3 bet bluff with, no?)

RaoulFlush 4 years, 11 months ago

Well, i assumed a pretty whide range and your equity is still at 40%. It will be higher if we discount the hands that you pointed out. So with 40% we already have an easy call OTF (me nit lolz)

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