3bp: turn underpair into bluff vs likely stronger SDvalue?
Posted by ohgodwhy
Posted by
ohgodwhy
posted in
Low Stakes
3bp: turn underpair into bluff vs likely stronger SDvalue?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (5 Players)
BN: $25.00 (Hero)
SB: $25.45
BB: $25.00
UTG: $29.98
CO: $21.74
SB: $25.45
BB: $25.00
UTG: $29.98
CO: $21.74
villain 27/27 over 11 hands
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BN with
8
8
, , , ,
Flop
($4.50)
T
5
5
,
Turn
($9.22)
T
5
5
K
,
River
($9.22)
T
5
5
K
A
Good spot to turn this into a bluff? Doesn't seem like I have much SDvalue and I think I can rep Ax pretty well. Most of my club combos probably bet the turn, so I really don't show up with much worse. Ingame I felt like I'd be overbluffing by doing so with all PPs 66-99 but thinking twice about it, I probably have 12 combos of AQ in my range and AJ at least with backdoors, so it seems like a good spot.
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I don't like it. There are not many hands that you are losing to to justify turning this hand into a bluff. He is never folding Kx or Ax, and he doesn't have many Tx in his 3-betting range preflop so It feels like you can only make him fold JJ and QQ, which are only 12 combos.
Well, 12 combos with some combinations of Tx isn't that extremely little. Yes, it's close and probably slightly -ev once he can have a lot Kx, Ax in his range but I'd expect him to mostly bet this himself on either turn or river ,at least the stronger/offsuit combos.
And from a more balanced standpoint: What are we bluffing with on the river if not this hand?
Check for S/D. No reason to bet/bluff. Not getting anything that beats you to fold with this line.
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