3bp: AK facing flop raise on AQ4 monotone
Posted by ohgodwhy
Posted by
ohgodwhy
posted in
Low Stakes
3bp: AK facing flop raise on AQ4 monotone
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $29.91
SB: $39.06
BB: $28.04 (Hero)
UTG: $26.80
MP: $25.35
CO: $26.75
SB: $39.06
BB: $28.04 (Hero)
UTG: $26.80
MP: $25.35
CO: $26.75
villain unknown
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
A
K
, , , ,
Flop
($4.80)
A
4
Q
, ,
Turn
($15.00)
A
4
Q
K
,
I don't feel particularly well about this spot. If he's a reg, I hardly see any bluffs or worse for value in his range and even if he's a fish, it seems really close since he should have more clubs in his defending range than a reg. Can I just fold to the flop raise? Seems hard to do when he's unknown and the fish concentration at these stakes is quite high. Same reasoning for thinking about checking the flop.
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I dont think betting small on this flop is a good strategy. If I were to c-bet this combo it would be bigger. But I like checking range OOP in mono boards. As played I dont think you can fold flop or turn vs an unknown specially when you bet small otf, but it will be most likely a fold vs a player you know is passive.
What's the reason behind cbetting bigger? I feel like this often ends up in awkward stacksizes on later streets. I'd also check this a lot vs a good player but felt like I'm better off cbetting for value vs unknown since it's quite likely he's fishy/not good.
It would be awkward with your exact hand, but think whole picture -- betting bigger denies them equity and protects your overall range.
With that said, I'm probably checking almost my entire range in this spot.
I agree with Saulo, I think checking most of your range on monotone boards is the way to go, and use a very polarized strategy when you do cbet. For example, cbet your nuts, and a number of combos with K clubs and bet large.
As played, the K hearts on the turn is a very interesting card. There is only one combo of suited KQ out there (KQdd), and if villain somehow has an off suit combo with the Kc, I think he'd check the turn?
So half the suited Kx combos in villain's 3b flatting range are clubs and that is noteworthy. I don't have flopzilla open, but I'm guess that suited Kx combos make up a considerable amount of CO's 3b flatting range vs BB, perhaps 2nd to Ax.
So you have 21 combos of 2 pair (if you 3b all AKo, AQo), 4 combos of straights, 9 combos of sets, and some amount of flushes? So sort of toward the bottom of your range. I guess you may not be taking all of these into the turn with you though.
I think your range is probably strong enough to fold here, but I could be wrong.
You somewhat miss the point of my question. I totally agree that this could preferably be a x/c vs a decent opponent. However the question is rather whether going for the population-exploit by cbetting is the better play or not given I don't know anything about my opponent. Yes, I might make a small mistake if he turns out to be a somewhat decent reg, so arguments can definitely be made for taking the safe route. However, the value of cbetting this vs a fish/fun player probably is large enough to make it worth taking the risk. At least it's close. That's what I'm interested in.
Checking range is probably higher EV than having a c-bet range so I would go with that as a default. If not higher EV, I dont think it loses much. Play with CREV + a few assumptions about what people will stab IP vs a check (a DB alias is good for this) and you will have a better understanding of the spot. But regardless of EV, its a strategy a lot easier to play, and it makes you more difficult to play against.
There are many ways to approach this spot, but using particularly large sizing on monotone boards is not a trend I have seen in my hundreds of hours of Pio study.
Larger sizings (60-75%) ok for IP?
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