I do like you analisys of the meta game! Check fold the river as they don't bluff.

If they don't bluff enough and you also have a diamond, it's pretty unlikely the opponent has diamonds in his hand. So it's a clear fold on the river.

On the flop I believe it's ok either options, I lean towards betting to get call by A7s A8s 99, KQd, AQd, some crazy AKo.

Then I would check call turn, since my hand has plenty of equity and villian has not a huge value range here, because I don't spect him to fire all KJ and QJ and they raise sometimes sets on the flop. So call here.

On the river given all this, and expecting him to check back missed draws I believe it's better to fold.

Wp!

Being in this spot on the river is exactly why I don't like cbetting this hand, even less double barrelling on the turn. You're making the pot bigger with a hand that will become only a bluffcatcher on the river.

I like check/calling this hand on the flop, and if villain checks back, then sometimes betting the turn and the river for value, sometimes checking again on the turn to protect my double checking range.

As played, if you think that the player pool underbluffs the river, then you have an easy check/fold. However, I'm not sure that a 10NL player shoves AJ for value on the river, and if he is the kind that always raise DP/set on the flop or on the river, then his value betting range is very thin on the river, and even if he rarely bluffs, bluff catching might be profitable.

Well played! XC flop is fine as well.