3bet pot OOP postflop

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3bet pot OOP postflop

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (5 Players) BB: $15.07
UTG: $9.30
CO: $9.50
BN: $10.83
SB: $18.02 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is SB with Q J
UTG folds, CO raises to $0.20, BN folds, Hero raises to $0.90, BB folds, CO calls $0.70
Flop ($1.90) 3 6 5
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn ($1.90) 3 6 5 7
Hero checks, CO checks
River ($1.90) 3 6 5 7 T
Hero bets $0.72, CO calls $0.72

villian looks fish, should i play defensive and check all my range here? should i bet turn?

6 Comments

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screamdustry 6 years, 10 months ago

Just bet flop, no reason to think that you should play any kind of 'defensive' there. You are within a range advantage as preflop 3bettor, and your hand has a lot of good qualities to just put money right away on the flop. And you also have a lot of incentive to put money there, as folding just any random two overcards is really great deal for not-yet-improved QJhigh.

Then, as played i would also use same logic OTT.

Kalupso 6 years, 10 months ago

Not sure what 10NL fish is doing but when you 3bet 4.5x from SB a lot of people will fold 22-55 close to 100% and maybe even some 66 will fold for tighter players so you can treat the flop as if the flop is like 226 or something.

Even if CO has all 22-66 it's probably still just a high frequency flop cbet spot and then play more carefully from the turn onwards. 200bb+ deep it's more reasons to be trying to doge stacking off vs sets,

Mancuso 6 years, 10 months ago

Just ran some sims at GTO+ and CB'ing in a high freq with a 0.33psb is good. Since the defender is IP, the solver almost went to a 0 to 1% raising frequency, but I don't believe this will occur in a real situation. Also, I tried to invert and put your range IP and his range OOP, and again using only a 0.33psb CB the solver resulted in a 15+% raising frequency, which means that positions are really valuable.

Assuming that GTO+ likes to raise more often when OOP, is a good idea to check our entire range on this flop and be aggressive vs stabs?
Also, ran a sim of 100% checking range and the preflop caller goes for 22% 0.5psb stab, which I believe would be bigger in a real situation, the solver resulted in a 10% XRaising freq. Then I node locked to somewhat 45% stab freq, including overpairs, top pairs, flushdraws, some OESD, etc. The X/Raising range went to almost 30% frequency.

Kalupso 6 years, 10 months ago

The SPR is short enough and advantage big enough that you want to apply pressure by betting a lot. Single raised pot for same board is completely different.

Mancuso 6 years, 10 months ago

Interesting, Kalupso .
So, is more simple to just keep betting in a high frequency this 3bpot flop OOP rather than X/Raising a lot? If villain is aggro postflop and has a high raiseCB% in 3bpots, are we still betting and gii?

sauloCosta10 6 years, 10 months ago

That is very good analysis Mancuso. Very very good.

Ive done tons of studies in this spot and can say with pretty high confidence that betting range and checking range on those types of flops are extremely close in EV, given the deviations population takes vs both lines. So it all comes down to how well you think you will play turns and rivers after you take each line. With both strategic options on the flop there are lots of possible exploits in the future streets, so just pick the one you studied the most.

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