3b pot vs unknown reg
Posted by Simplifier
Posted by Simplifier posted in Low Stakes
3b pot vs unknown reg
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (4 Players)
BB: $14.07 (Hero)
CO: $10.00
BN: $18.18
SB: $10.00
CO: $10.00
BN: $18.18
SB: $10.00
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BB with
A
K
, , , ,
Flop
($1.65)
5
J
K
, ,
Turn
($6.65)
5
J
K
2
, ,
River
($13.75)
5
J
K
2
7
, ,
Final Pot
BB
lost and shows a pair of Kings.
BN wins and shows three of a kind, Fives.
BN wins $27.19
Rake is $1.00
BN wins and shows three of a kind, Fives.
BN wins $27.19
Rake is $1.00
I have no reads whatsoever, he had just stacked a fish with AA last hand.
Loading 11 Comments...
I think you have to fold river here for a couple of reasons.
I used flopzilla to look at the range he might defend OTB v you 3b, it is slightly on the tighter side
JJ-22,AQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,[50]AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,A9s-A2s,K8s,Q8s,J8s,T8s,98s,87s[/50],[20]QQ,AKo,ATo,AKs[/20]
1) At 10NL people rarely 3barrel bluff especially in this kind of situation where you go to the flop as the PFR in a 3b pot.
2) He doesn't actually have that many strong hands that want to raise the flop, without reads that would be KJs (only KcJc left), JJ (3 bombos left), KK (1 combo left) and 55 (3 combos). I wouldn't expect him to turn MP and PP type hands into a bluff very often.
There are a few gutshots (Q9,AQ,T9,AT the stronger ones you also block which is nice) and an OESD w/ QT. Now these draws make up 19.78% of the defending range I assigned him, at the same time his nut hands (2p+) make up 6.85% so he will have to bluff his gutshots very frequently (especially on the flop) for you to be able to continue. By very frequently I mean 65%+ of the time.
If he doesn't do that and we now want to take this to the river he will have even fewer bluffs because he will shut down with some OTT.
Therefore, given his sizings I like calling OTT and just folding the river.
Thank you for your insight. I'm a little confused about the call ott if we should always fold otr, hell i don't even think he knew enough about me to bluff that much , maybe i should consider folding otf or atleast ott. How does this sound to you? Why is it alright from your point of view to call the flop and turn if we always fold the river?
Well, he won't always bet the river.
Check/call turn against agressive/thinking opponent. Check/fold turn against Passive/non thinking players. Check/fold river always...he has almost no bluffs and is not shoving worse
Thanks. Is the flop a no-brainer call? I'm asking this b/c i feel that if we call the flop we should be expecting further aggression on future streets, and perhaps when we call otf we are comitting ourselves to calling the turn atleast maybe? I'm a little confused.
You dont get commited to call turn if you call flop, because OTF you are not really sure if you are beat or not, so you should re-evaluate OTT by seeing your opponent's action. Thats why I make a distinction between passive and agressive players, because I know that a passive player will not be bluffing/betting worse OTT so I can easily fold. Against an agressive opponent its tougher because he has more semi bluffs, bluffs (not much) and value hands in his range, so I could still x/c turn. But I agree with SPrince, at these stakes, getting raised OTF usually means you are beat if you have only top pair, specially on a rainbow flop like this one. So you could save yourself some money by just folding OTF...it may seem weak but villain is probably not doing this with KQ, so, yeah, could find a fold OTF
You can probably get away with folding flop on these stakes.
Thanks, i thought so myself. Do you consider that if we call the flop we are obliged to call the turn too and potentially the river?
Not at all, expect him to raise 2p+ exclusively here.
I think I would call flop, fold turn vs unknown. If he has no stats on you, and he bets turn I think it is almost always for value. This is a 3b pot, you are deep and your call on flop should look super strong to him so he probably expects at least Kx... that being said i doubt he will bet like that on turn to try and bluff you out of the pot.
As played river should be a snap-fold.
i think its prob ok to b/f Flop or call Fl and fold Turn.. i dont know how nl10 plays but i assume its still super passive and just callhappy. U might exploit him here by folding too wide. As others mentioned you dont see enough bluffs. Only thing im worried about is that ppl could do this with AK KQ and random sh*. But you know your playerpool.. think about how often ppl bluff in 3b pot on a dry Kxx Board.
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