Interesting question. At first glance button raising turn seems like a bit of a strange play. Turn changes nothing, seems like button shouldn't have much if any raising range there. I'll have to think about it a bit more.

What do you think?

OK I thought for a little longer and I guess the second flush draw would incentivize button to raise with some trips as the river could definitely be a card that's bad for those trips very often. Might kill our action. But I'm still not sure if we should be raising anything.

I think that valuebarreling range is way too wide. Lots of weak Ax that is going to get called by better Ax a lot of the time.

As for the BTN's raising range... I could see someone raise here with like 98/87, which wants to protect now that the 2nd flush draw is out. I'm not sure whether that's correct though. It's also very hard to construct a bluffraising range.

Thanks for the responses so far:

Before posting what I think let's assign BT the following 3B calling range

TT-22, AJs-A9s, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AJo-ATo, KQo

OttoPilot - I agree - should've likely prefaced by saying let's assume SB is a weaker reg - what do you think is a better barreling cutoff - AJ?

Okay let's change the SB xr and bet range to:

AhAs, AhAc, AsAc, 8h8c, AhKh, AsKs, AcKc, AhQh, AsQs, AcQc, KdQd, KsQs, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, KsTs, QdTd, JdTd, Kd9d, Ks9s, Td9d, 9h8h, 9c8c, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh

and BT turn range to:

TT-99, 77-22, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 8d8h, KsQs, KcQc, AdJd, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, QdJd, QhJh, QsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AcTc, KsTs, KcTc, QsTs, QcTc, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, Ac9c, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Ts9s, Tc9c, Td8d, Th8h, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s7s, 9c7c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8d6d, 8h6h, 7s6s, 7c6c, Ad5d, Ah5h, Ac5c, 7s5s, 7c5c, 6s5s, 6c5c, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ac4c, 6s4s, 6c4c, 5s4s, 5c4c, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ah2h, Ac2c, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs

BT only has trips 6% of the time - and would be raising a couple combos of Ax depending on his raise sizing.

However if we can get SB to fold AK and AQ - can an argument be made for raising more Ax?  

Discussing this before modelling it probably wasn't the best idea :) but the discussion has been interesting so far. :S

I was the BT, SB was a weaker reg which is why more Ax were included.

My assumption was that adding a few combos of weak Ax as a turn raise range which is heavily exploitable and I suppose we can balance with some trips which is somewhat meaningless as we are still capped adds to our overall EV than simply folding every Ax we need to fold on the turn.

Considering it's an exploitive play the balance discussion is largely moot but was mainly wondering what people's thoughts were on what SB would fold to a raise and the expectations for BTs range.

Basically - maintaining a river shoving range seems necessary whether we are shoving over a tb or against a check - but keeping all Ax to the river is probably choking our EV somewhat and is the whole point of the turn play - which is more relevant considering were 150bb+

Are we actually capped here? I don't see why we can't have AA, JJ, 88, and A8, and having a raising range seems quite good strategically.

I'm guessing a lot at our range when we call the SB 3bet but if I assume something like

TT-22,AQs-A2s,KQs-K6s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s,65s,54s,AQo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,[20]AA[/20],[50]JJ[/50]

I think we can have a raising range on flop, turn, and river and also don't see any reason why we shouldn't. Not having a raising range would make it far easier for SB to bet into us OOP and harder for us to realize our equity.

OTF I think we can raise trips with good kickers for value and to fold out hands with equity from backdoor flush outs. I think it makes sense to have 99 and 77 with hearts/clubs as bluffs because they have excellent blockers to opponent's value range and I'm also going to raise with low spades suited connectors since they have some equity but perhaps not enough to call.

K8s,Q8s,J8s,T8s / Qs9s,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s,9s7s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,5s4s / 9h9c,9h9d,9h9s,9c9d,9c9s,7h7c,7h7d,7h7s,7c7d,7c7s

This gives us a 10% raising range OTF.

I think it's probably best to defend around 1-A here since we have position and plenty of reasonable hands to do it with. We will probably be a bit weak on heart/club turns though. Here's my calling range:

>=tp / fd / hc[mp]+bckdr fd / HC: JJ-TT / HC: 9h7h,9c7c

97s is almost purely for its blockers to SB's value range and I will be raising it on the turn. Obviously it has backdoor straight outs as well but those aren't why I'm keeping it.

That gets us down to a 38.9% flop folding frequency which should be fine, on the one hand SB's worst hands don't do super well when they check but EV checking can't be as low as 0 here for him so we're okay with giving them bluffs which are profitable by just the slightest amount.

TURN: Js

On this turn our trips which we didn't raise on the flop are incentivized to raise because SB should be barreling with a lot of flush draws but hasn't made any yet. I think a diamond turn SB will have almost as many flush draws because he has so many offsuit cards but on a diamond turn SB will also have a ton of flushes, we can still raise this turn but it'll be with our own flushes and flush draws, not with our trips.

Raising range:

3oak / TT,KdQh,KdQc,KhQd,KcQd,KsQd,KdQs,9h7h,9c7c

This time I decided for bluffs to raise our TT since we don't want to call again and they all have decent blockers to something (AT, flush draws, T8s, etc) and our KQdx which missed its bdfd and doesn't want to call with just a gutter but has blockers to AK AQ and some diamond draws which might continue vs a raise. That leaves us raising 16.6%. I'm not sure about the value:air range here but I am guessing this might be a little too air heavy with only one street left; I'm at 5.27:11.3

Calling range:

On the turn we have enough flush draws which we can call with that we can start folding our weaker top pairs. I'm keeping A7 and A9 to bluffraise river with though. I'm actually folding very little, just some weak aces and some offsuit broadways with a diamond which floated and hit a jack but aren't good enough to call.

>=2p / fd / AKo-AQo,ATo,AKs-AQs,ATs-A9s,A7s

Our turn folding frequency is 30%.

So, now that we have a defending strategy (if it's agreeable enough) you could take a look at SB's barreling range and see which hands want to barrel and which hands would prefer to x/c.

Awesome thanks for your analysis.

Our calling ranges are a bit different - although mine would also include some of the bigger 8xs as well in practice if villain is 3-betting wide enough.

I'm confused as to why you would want to fold weaker top pairs on the turn but raise KQ - my initial thinking was that raising some weak top pairs that can't call would fold out better pairs potentially while getting some value from villain flush draws that decide to call our raise - and we use that threshold of combos to balance our turn trips.

KQ's have blockers to flushdraws and AK AQ however our Ax have blockers much the same and blocking some flush draws I don't think is a positive here when we're bluffing.