3b pot , river dacision , 2 pairs
Posted by MartiniTSW
Posted by
MartiniTSW
posted in
Low Stakes
3b pot , river dacision , 2 pairs
Hand History for Game 1111111111 (WPN)
$50.00 USD NL Holdem - Wednesday, December 01, 09:38:03 ET 2021
Table Blitz Poker $0.25/$0.50 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ( $56.01 USD ) - (26.99 / 20.28 / 8.64 / 20k)
Seat 2: Player2 ( $72.08 USD ) - (21.54 / 18.51 / 10.29 / 13k)
Seat 3: Player3 ( $50.00 USD ) - (19.77 / 16.75 / 8.41 / 12k)
Seat 4: Player4 ( $94.17 USD ) - (30.23 / 17.83 / 10.71 / 132)
Seat 5: Player5 ( $50.00 USD ) - (21.41 / 18.05 / 8.85 / 20k)
Seat 6: Player6 ( $64.43 USD ) - (30.72 / 9.01 / 4.27 / 442)
Player2 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Player3 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
* Dealing down cards *
Dealt to Player2 [ 7s 9s ]
Player4 folds
Player5 folds
Player6 folds
Hero raises [$1.25 USD]
Player2 raises [$4.50 USD]
Player3 folds
Hero calls [$3.25 USD]
* Dealing Flop * [ 7h, As, Kd ]
Player2 bets [$2.97 USD]
Hero calls [$2.97 USD]
* Dealing Turn * [ 6s ]
Player2 bets [$11.00 USD]
Hero calls [$11.00 USD]
* Dealing River * [ 9d ]
Player2 bets [$53.61 USD]
Hero calls [$37.54 USD]
I need 34% for be call .
3b SBvBN 19%
Cb 3b pot oop 67/50/63
afq 42/32/34
WWSF 52
He needs to bluffs a ~6kombos of fd on river and vbet AQ . So better it to fold this without any other info ?
Loading 2 Comments...
Roughly speaking:
AK/AA/KK represents only ~2.5% or his 19% 3bet SB vs BTN open.
8 combos of AK and 6 combos AA/KK are vbetting, that's 14 total.
There's 12 alone of AQ. If there's any bluffs in his range, and I would imagine their would be because the 3bet aggressor's board type, you gotta call this. There may some other weird value hands (77, A7ss), but I believe they'll be offset by pure bluffs (QJs, 45s).
It's not a fist pump call, you'd obviously rather the spades or 7, but I think its +EV to make this call in the long even though they'll be a lot of variance in it.
In GTO land this will be a slam dunk call.
In reality, I think he is going to have somewhere between 20 to 30 combos of devastating value. If you factor in AQ and make the assumption he goes 3 streets with it, along with some bluffs (judging by his stats, seems quite possible) it will be a call also. This is a board with very few natural bluffs with QT/QJ/JT being the best of them.
Being that you can track him (barreling notes), I would probably end up calling this off.
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