3b pot IP facing awkard action with very close equity to the nuts
Posted by DatpKay
Posted by DatpKay posted in Mid Stakes
3b pot IP facing awkard action with very close equity to the nuts
SB: $308.85
BB: $203.00
UTG: $514.06
MP: $636.19
CO: $500.90
Villain is a competent REG who opens 23% in that position, 4bet 0,7%, no stat on his folding tendencies there so far - I guess pretty standardish
OTF I like 1/3 with ~100% of my range
vs the raise we need 27%
I figured roughly a rang like this:
Board: 3sQcTc
Equity Win Tie
MP3 66.90% 65.43% 1.47% { QQ, TT, QTs, J9s, AcKc, KcJc, 9c8c, Ac5c, AQo }
BU 33.10% 31.63% 1.47% { AsKs }
and maybe like 1 combo AA / and or an AQ!? which doesnt change our equity too much...
OTT we need 33% equity and after the call we have 107$ behind and I figured we have 11 super clean outs and given the potsize and the dynamic a lot of implieds and only few reversed implieds when he makes the house and we the flush on the river which will/can be unlikely in case he blocks the spade with QQ/TT
Board: 3sQcTc
Equity Win Tie
CO 70.19% 70.15% 0.04% { QQ, TT, AdAh, QTs, J9s }
BU 29.81% 29.76% 0.04% { AsKs }
as the worst case... maybe 33 in it...
I don't know... surely not a spot to print money but given the 50BB implieds I figured it is an okay call albeit very high variance!?...
+somehow sometimes we might hit an A/K and run into a weird line with a giveup...
Call turn okay?
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