3b pot IP facing awkard action with very close equity to the nuts

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3b pot IP facing awkard action with very close equity to the nuts

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players) BN: $307.40 (Hero)
SB: $308.85
BB: $203.00
UTG: $514.06
MP: $636.19
CO: $500.90
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is BN with A K
UTG folds, MP raises to $5.00, CO folds, Hero raises to $18.00, 2 folds, MP calls $13.00
Flop ($39.00) 3 Q T
MP checks, Hero bets $12.23, MP raises to $48.43, Hero calls $36.20
Turn ($135.86) 3 Q T 8
MP bets $133.18, Hero

Villain is a competent REG who opens 23% in that position, 4bet 0,7%, no stat on his folding tendencies there so far - I guess pretty standardish

OTF I like 1/3 with ~100% of my range

vs the raise we need 27%

I figured roughly a rang like this:

Board: 3sQcTc
Equity Win Tie
MP3 66.90% 65.43% 1.47% { QQ, TT, QTs, J9s, AcKc, KcJc, 9c8c, Ac5c, AQo }
BU 33.10% 31.63% 1.47% { AsKs }

and maybe like 1 combo AA / and or an AQ!? which doesnt change our equity too much...

OTT we need 33% equity and after the call we have 107$ behind and I figured we have 11 super clean outs and given the potsize and the dynamic a lot of implieds and only few reversed implieds when he makes the house and we the flush on the river which will/can be unlikely in case he blocks the spade with QQ/TT

Board: 3sQcTc
Equity Win Tie
CO 70.19% 70.15% 0.04% { QQ, TT, AdAh, QTs, J9s }
BU 29.81% 29.76% 0.04% { AsKs }

as the worst case... maybe 33 in it...

I don't know... surely not a spot to print money but given the 50BB implieds I figured it is an okay call albeit very high variance!?...

+somehow sometimes we might hit an A/K and run into a weird line with a giveup...

Call turn okay?

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