3 Bet pot: AA vs lead-shove river
Posted by BOE
Posted by
BOE
posted in
Mid Stakes
3 Bet pot: AA vs lead-shove river
Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players)
CO: $200.00
BN: $260.99 (Hero)
SB: $342.01
BB: $200.00
UTG: $322.78
MP: $590.74
BN: $260.99 (Hero)
SB: $342.01
BB: $200.00
UTG: $322.78
MP: $590.74
Preflop
($3.00)
Hero is BN with
A
A
, , , ,
Flop
($36.24)
5
8
8
, ,
Turn
($75.28)
5
8
8
K
, ,
River
($165.28)
5
8
8
K
4
,
Hi
villain's a reg. 26/20 fold to 3bet 62%,4betR 2.8, agg 43/33/38, dbet river 18%(2/11).
In game I have not been able to assign a range to my opponent because I held the diamonds ace and because the board was paired.
What do you think about?
Loading 15 Comments...
He shouldnt have many 8x hands to defend 3bets with, but maybe depending on the rather small 3bet, he peels lighter. Weird river lead given that he cannot have the nut flush. I think his value range consists of KQ-KT dd, but he might be playing AK with the Kd just like this too.
Nuttines of the flush does not matter when there is less than 1 pot size bet left. Could easily be any flush. Any 8, any 76s. Just because if he checks, you are probably not value-betting AA or AK or at least no always. I don't think it is Kx even AK just because he blocks K, more sense to bluff catch.
I expect ppl to call tighter vs 3bets oop and fold the weaker draws to a 2nd barrel.
76s is very unlikely to call turn with no SD value and poor pot odds. it just loses to your bluffs even if you give up on your bluff. He also shudnt have many flush draws that peel twice are Axdd hands with SD value. For similar reasons to the 76s, i dont think he can peel twice with T9dd because he just loses to your bluffs even if you give up, and its not like he can use to check/jam river because the blockers of T9dd are terrible and the SPR won't be large enough.
So it does look like his value range with be KQ-KTdd that make a lot of sense on each street leading up to the river. I dont necessarily agree with his river jam, given you will a good deal of flushes yourself as well as hands like AA/AK that have his bluff catchers in terrible shape. As a result, I think he shud be checking mostly, in order to make it so you cannot just vbet him to death when he checks this river and signifies he most likely has a weaker bluff catchers like 65s, 77,99,TT or KJs or something.
Regardless, you do a hold a relevant blocker to much of the value range he's repping (Axdd and Kxdd), but the issue is that i dont see what his bluffing range is. Does he randomly shove like 9x9d here? I would think some players wud use AdX as a bluff, like AdQx maybe, so you may be blocking his bluffs.
He only seems to have 4 value combos (KQdd Kjdd KTdd 76dd) as well as maybe the occasional full house, so all you need to do is find like a few random bluffs for this to be a call. He may perceive his value range as these 4 combos + AQdd AJdd ATdd A9dd, so he may have stacked on too many bluffs. In addition, I'd think he wud check some of these flushes to protect his checking range a bit, so maybe he has even fewer value combos.
Expliotatively, idk if ppl bluff enough here though, because you look like you have a flush draw or overpair/Kx and now the flush got here. This could be him fearing u check back Kx or AA and shoving and hoping to get called. That seems likely actually given most likely population tendencies
I have this theory that when a player all of a sudden donk shove the river after he played passively, he has it way more often than he bluffs. Seems that players were donk bluffing river a fair bit a few years ago, nowadays I just don't see it anymore.
Would the spot be appropriate for a bluff in vilain's shoes? Yes, because everything got there and it makes sense to play value hands like that. Does that mean he's taking it? In a vacuum, I'd say, no no no. His line is too suspicious IMO, very few players will hero fold Kx + in this spot.
I call here. Villain doesn't have many value hands that make sense to play like this and not that many hands actually improve on the river that call turn. As an aside, I hope that you're 3 betting this spot a bunch or I don't see the benefit of using the small sizing preflop.
I'd fold, you have many better hands to call with - flushes, straights, trips, Kings full.. Ad blocker seems irrelevant here, having Kd would be more useful.
Hey, I'm curious why you'd rather have the Kd than the Ad.
Having K in our hand we block villains value range that we beat, so AA are better here than AK. But if we had 2 blockers to K, that would help for sure ;)
both the Kd and Ad are relevant blockers because both block his flush draws that can call twice and get to this river
Are blockers overrated in contemporary holdem?
Blockers are good when bluffing for two reasons:
1 - You will face value combos less often if you block some of them. And you will get folds more often when not blocking possible draws.
2 - Blockers are also good randomizer cards, basically you can bluff only with blockers to some important parts of villains range.
And blockers are good when bluffcatching for those 2 reasons:
1 - If you block possible draws, there is more chance you'll see villain with value hand at showdown.
2 - they are good randomizers - most of the times it is better to call not the top of your range on the river when opp has polarized range, but hands with blockers.
I agree, I just wonder if that is not overrated over other key factors in the game of poker, such as: is this a spot people take as a bluff often enough? Sometimes blockers will be key in our decisions, sometimes they are more likely to cloud our judgment IMO. Same with calling because 'too high in our range', and other common fallacies (until everybody plays perfect poker lol).
Sure, 'too high up in my range" will not always work when playing for stacks. But in small/medium pots that's an ok judgement.
I think, you question plays with blockers because you are on the side of "playing our cards" camp. But there is also "playing vs our opponent range" camp, for which blockers sure will be relevant.
Lets say I opened UTG with Ac5c. I got a call from CO, whose cold call on CO is around 7%, and 3-bet 3%. Board is KdQd6h.
If I play my 2-cards on this flop, than I'd rather be x-folding here, because I am not going to turn any backdoors.
But if I play vs my opponent range (JJ-55,AQo,AKs-ATs,KQs,QJs,JTs), I'll know that he has a lot of pocket pairs on this board that are lower than Q, so he might be folding here all his TT-55 and maybe even JJ to my flop bet. So based on how this board fits my opponent range, I can make a profitable cbet here.
Or lets imagine I did 3-bet CO vs MP with KJs. Flop is T43r. I have runner flush draw.
So I cbet this flop, villain calls. I expect villain to float here with overcards like AK, AQ, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77. And I don't think villain has too any Tx in his preflop calling range. Turn rainbow 4. I didn't turn any equity, but neither did villain. And I expect on this turn to get folds from AK, AQ, 99, 88, 77 which is around 40 combos he folds and 12 he calls. And even he calls with half of his AK, it is still a profitable bet for me, even without equity vs his calling range. But if I played my 2 cards on the turn, I'd give up and check back - because I do not have equity to barrel turn. And I think when barreling this turn blockers help me - villain will have only half of his JJ combos, so I'd get even more folds.
May you share the result please? :-)
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