3 barrels on locked down str8 board OOP. 100nl

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3 barrels on locked down str8 board OOP. 100nl

BN: $156.04
SB: $47.61
BB: $101.80
UTG: $217.57
HJ: $100 (Hero)
CO: $163.56
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($7.50) 6 8 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $5, CO calls $5
Turn ($17.50) 6 8 7 Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $13, CO calls $13
River ($43.50) 6 8 7 Q 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $31
First hand with villain on zoom. I ve done some analysis on this hand here and gave villain a range for getting to the river of AxQx,Ax9x-Ax7x,AxQy,JJ-55,Jx9x,Tx9x,9x8x,8x7x. AxQx,AxQy,JJ-66,Tx9x,8x7x now these are hands that are in his potential calling range. For this to be a profitable bluff he needs to fold 99 and worse as he matches AxQx,AxQy,JJ,TT,Tx9x,88-66,8x7x 58% of the time and we need a fold 42% of the time. So will villains on average fold 99 here?

99 vs AA-JJ,AxKx,AxQx,Ax9x,AxKy,AxQy,Qx9x,Jx9x,Tx9x,88-66,8x7x,7x6x as a river betting range for me has 28.5% so its at the point of indifference really. However JJ for me isnt quite a good value bet here even if he is calling 99 so its a bit of a range play. Also most of my range can t call a raise here OTR and if villains are at all aware of this I need to value bet way less thin and bluff less too. I m not quite ready to give the average 100nl player credit for being able to make this play.

In the end what do you think? Bluff this or not? If this is not a place to bluff it means I should likely be playing my range a bit differently on all streets.

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