2p v bet river on drawy board
Posted by maco
Posted by
maco
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Low Stakes
2p v bet river on drawy board
Villain is a reg, not much info. I opened 2.5x, he called. Flop I went for a 1/3 bet and he goes for a 4x raise. My thoughts on the flop are that we shouldnt cbet range on this kind of flop and we should size up with this hand. When he goes for a big raise size his range in my eyes looks like AQ+ and some bluffs sd,fd and some backdoors. OTT he goes for a pot size bet, 21.70bb into 21.70bb pot. My first question comes here, should we go for a raise here and take value from his weaker value hands and deny some equity or call with the plan of calling blanks? OTR when he bets again it might be a leak of mine, but I dont see a lot of regs still value bet river with worse hands and I dont see a lot of bluffs here. So, whats the play otr?
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I'm folding the river, but don't take what I'm saying as right, I'd like to hear better opinions. I'd fold for the same reason you stated, not a lot of value or bluffs on that runout. Good question on about turn. He's super polarized based on bet sizing so calling might be be better on the turn....
IMO this hand is played fine. I ran a quick sim to back this up. In general we want to be sizing up given this texture OTF, but given the fact that we hold the Js, the solver is mixing up everything kind of even OTF (check/bet small/bet big). So betting smaller seems to b eok here.
The sim i ran was made at 100B and i guess the fact that we are deeper pre, makes ppl inclined to play 88/99 more often as a flat than a 3bet. So imo the XR could even be stronger than the solver suggests.
So blocking spades and unblocking the straight this should usually be a call OTT.
Interestingly the solver prefers to fold this combo OTR, but likes calling down the combos that dont contain BDFD stuff.
So given the fact that a J is on board our flushblocker gets irrelevant (ie bad)....
So if this is a clear fold in theory it will be for sure a fold vs a reg arround i assume
Interesting 1 for me!
think this is a board where we want to size up and play a more polar range, a lot of our top value hands want to charge the max to weaker Ax and draws and a lot of our middle value type hands like AJo are going to have a tough time getting 3 streets on most runouts but we do bet here for the large sizing at probably a mixed freq...as played i think that on the turn we need to call our Ax 2p combos and fds/straights, sets etc...once we get to the river you're pretty low down in your range and do not beat any value or have any relevant blockers so its a fold...dvoress has a great video about betting large on flops like this and why its a mistake to go small too often because the board is connected and there will be a ton of turns where AK/AQ type hands can no longer bet 3 streets for value and are foced to check turn and face a polar range with poor blockers on bad rivers...but its a well played hand given the action, small bet on flop is certanly not a huge mistake in a vacuum but big bet is better
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