2P facing river raise after turn checked through

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2P facing river raise after turn checked through

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $8.47
SB: $25.10 (Hero)
BB: $32.55
UTG: $25.00
MP: $36.11
CO: $32.42
villain 19/19/3b 9 over 30 hands
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is SB with 4 A
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB raises to $2.25, Hero calls $1.50
Flop ($4.50) 2 8 A
Hero checks, BB bets $2.15, Hero calls $2.15
Turn ($8.80) 2 8 A 7
Hero checks, BB checks
River ($8.80) 2 8 A 7 4
Hero bets $5.82, BB raises to $28.15 and is all in

What's your calling range in that spot and which bluffs would you have in villain's shoes? Am I correct that we can massively overfold here since the average reg at these stakes is very likely underbluffing a lot?

17 Comments

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Gay Theory 8 years, 9 months ago

i think it comes down to what u r trying to achieve... so OTR imo u trying to achieve to not let IP to bet his hand and make u fold a better hand often enough for given sizing? (which means its ok to fold better hand if not getting exploited for it, i.e. when villain never or rarelly bluff)

so OTR he needs it for dat sizing to work cca 23/38=60% of time so u nid to def 40% of ur betting range ...

so i guess this is at like top of ur bet range OTR so u could call, but folding is obv best if u think they never shove worse

Flopstarr 8 years, 9 months ago

I think when V is cking back the turn it is either bc he hit that card and now has SD value or he picked up equity and doesn't want to get CR'd off his hand. So many hands V could have improved on turn, 56dd, KQdd, 910dd, all make sense. Those hands were repping the ace on the flop, picked up equity on the turn and got there on the river. This is not a line I see as a bluff very often and at these stakes almost never.

I like the bet on the river and think you played it well, its just a bet fold.

Gay Theory 8 years, 9 months ago

. So many hands V could have improved on turn, 56dd, KQdd, 910dd,

so so so many ! u named 3... tru many truly tru , vote donald TRUmpf
many manly !

Wysedroid 8 years, 9 months ago

"Am I correct that we can massively overfold here since the average reg at these stakes is very likely underbluffing a lot?"
100%
This is not a bluff. I even like your sizing for when ur bluffing. b-f all day. nh

Chael Sonnen 8 years, 9 months ago

It's okay to fold every bluffcatcher if you think Villian is completely incapable of bluffing here.
Otherwise, I would call.
You very rarely have a flush here, since you can't have 54dd and you probably only float a couple of KQdd/KJdd combos that are not a flush and you might check-raise them sometimes.
Villian also should have very few flushes here, since he likely 3bets too polarized BVB, thus not having too many big cards and not enough suited hands. And those often would have bet the turn.
So you don't have a whole lot better than this and Villian could be bluffing with KK/QQ/AK/AQ with one diamond or just something random.

ohgodwhy 8 years, 9 months ago

If I decide to call, I probably prefer AQ, AJ w/ one diamond here over this combo, potentially even A6s, A5s to block the str8. I wouldn't make these/too many assumptions about his 3betting range though. There are so many people doing more or less random stuff at these stakes so I wouldn't wonder at all if he can show up with way more flushes than expected here. All in all I'm just quite happy with my fold here.
It's interesting that you assigned KK/QQ/AK/AQ to his range. Shouldn't KK, QQ check back the flop more often than not and AK, AQ bet turn in his shoes?

Gay Theory 8 years, 9 months ago

u put too much effort into blockerz, thats good only if villain dont raise linearly so that u block exactly his value and not his bluffs, so that he more often have bluffs...
but from wat i seen, they raise total linearly all the time, so imo linearity here is better than blockerz... so rather call A4>AQ

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