2NLz; Folding flopped straight on the river?

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2NLz; Folding flopped straight on the river?

Blinds: $0.01/$0.02 (6 Players) BN: $3.67
SB: $2.58
BB: $3.04 (Hero)
UTG: $2.00
MP: $2.65
CO: $2.60
Preflop ($0.03) Hero is BB with 9 J
2 folds, CO raises to $0.06, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.04
Vill was 27/20 att to steal:50 (3/6) sample: 32
Flop ($0.13) K Q T
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn ($0.13) K Q T 7
Hero bets $0.20, CO raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.30
Thinking after the fact (as usual) this might be not the best spot to overbet since we don't have the nuts (?). Now when he raise he's saying he had AJ or sets? Should we add 98 to his range here?
River ($1.13) K Q T 7 K
Hero checks, CO bets $0.98, Hero folds
After the fact this might be a call? Maybe turned lot of he's range to bluff here i.e JT, AK, QJ,98 (very rare) or this is just value heavy, maybe overplayed 77 that just rivered a boat?

Am I over folding here in this stake? I'm not good at calculating bluff to value ratio in the heat of the moment. Any tips on to quickly broke down those combos guys?

5 Comments

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Antonio Miranda 6 years ago

Think on your total overbet turn and call raise range, should be narrow.

Maybe shove turn at some freq
On this river, i expect IP value range to be
Straights and fulls
Bluff should contain some 9x and Jx

Then, J9 block some value and some bluff
I prefer to call Kx or even Q7 type hands blocking fulls and unblocking bluff

akissv7 6 years ago

I did not look into overbetting a lot but I don't think this is a spot to overbet the pot. It is a very wet board meaning that villain is not likely to call and if he calls or raises as is the case your most of the time up against a nutty hand two pair KQ, KT or AJ or J9.

The K on the river makes that now the villain has you also beat with KQ and KT so think the fold is correct if the river was a blank I would call but now with the K a fold is correct.

belrio42 6 years ago

I would fold pre against a 3x CO open. If you want to add more hands to BB flatting range, use more suited hands.

As played, it's very weird. I don't understand your opponent's line, unless it's something like AJ, J9, KK or 77. Maybe KQ as well.

You have about 50% equity against that range, and he will fold his bluffs. There's already 0.80 in the pot after his raise and the effective stack is 2.6.

So, shoving turn is probably +EV. Is calling better? I don't know. The advantage of shoving turn is that you don't make a hero fold on the river and then wonder if you were right, to then post on RIO :P

Bingo 123 6 years ago
  • We do have the nuts, AJo should not be 3betting at 100% freq
  • We expect to have more J9o combo's than villain
  • Villain cap's range on flop thus making our range more nut heavy comparably
  • Fold River looks fine as we do have better hand in our range and villain's bluff range is vague
HawksWin 6 years ago

I like calling AJ on the turn, but I think raising J9 is better. He has, like 12 combos of the nuts (which you block), potentially 12 combos of sets and a bunch of two pair on this turn (both of which you un-block). His raising range is so value heavy here since here are zero flush draws to be semi bluffing.

Basically I am counting on him not bet/folding anything. Shoving is definitely the option I prefer. You can make some re-raise to $1.30 or so but it makes the river awkward on board pairing rivers.

Flop is a bit concerning. He has a range advantage here and checks back on this board. I would expect this to be a high frequency bet for IP. I don't think I would ever check AJ back here, but if I did check this flop back, AJ would be the about the only combo I did it with hoping to induce you to start bluffing on a board that is pretty bad for you.

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