I don't understand how you can consider this an obvious fold. After you x flop and bet small turn and especially on river he could consider doing this with a lot of hands and given that it's Nl2 and people do wierd stuff I would never fold this.
At this limit, and at any limit for that matter this hand has clear 3 streets of value so you should always cbet this.

I understand checking the flop as you think he just folds too many hands here. That does make sense but I don't know how profitable it actually is. What we're saying there is we either need him to catch up and then call in position, OR we need him to not catch up AND bluff in position. The second situation is gonna happen much less often simply because we're out of position, when we check to him there are too many opportunities for him to check back, etc.. For the first situation, how often is he actually going to catch up? And when he does, is he really going to bet? If a queen comes off and this guy is passive and sees an ace on the board he might just be willing to check down if he has a queen.

Most hands that fold to your flop value bet aren't going to give you any value on later streets anyway. He may have 88 or 33 here if your read is super accurate and has a good sample size but I would have trouble folding here. Maybe you save more money than I do, but I definitely bet flop. If he folds, he folds.

Raise larger preflop.
Bet large otf, ott, otr.