2nd pair + FD in 3-bet pot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

2nd pair + FD in 3-bet pot

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BB: $9.58
UTG: $3.74
MP: $40.90 (Hero)
CO: $14.92
BN: $22.03
SB: $12.15
Only 39 hands on villain but stats look normal, 23/18/2.7.
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is MP with Q Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.25, 3 folds, BB raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.55
Think 4-bet versus an unknown at 10NL here is too light so I flat.
Flop ($1.65) 8 7 K
BB bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20
Standard
Turn ($4.05) 8 7 K 4
BB bets $2.20, Hero calls $2.20
Seems kind of standard but at the same time it's hard to see villain having that many bluffs in this spot. He's got AA, KK, all combos of AK basically and versus that range we only have 18%.

I feel like it's kind of a gross reverse implied odds spot, we hit a diamond OTR he's either x/f'ing everything that's not the nut flush and valueshoving everything that is.

If river is a blank I can see him checking AK a lot and we'll check back and lose.

Would I be a massive nit for folding this turn? Are there a ton of bluffs in his range I'm not accounting for?

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