2kNL/160BBs deep interesting river spot

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2kNL/160BBs deep interesting river spot

SB: Small Blind: $3242
BB: Big Blind: $2004.50
BN: Ryzy: $4684.50
Preflop ($30.00) (3 Players)
Ryzy was dealt A Q
Ryzy raises to $40, Small Blind calls $30, Big Blind calls $20
Flop ($120.00) A Q 5 (3 Players)
Small Blind checks, Big Blind checks, Ryzy bets $80, Small Blind calls $80, Big Blind folds
Turn ($280.00) J (2 Players)
Small Blind bets $200, Ryzy calls $200
River ($680.00) 6 (2 Players)
Small Blind checks

So this an Anonymous game, with no
strong reads.I had been playing
villain HU before we got to 3handed, we played about 50 hands together and he
played very straight forward, but as I've learned the hard way in the past  with anonymous tables it doesn't mean he's not capable of taking advantage of his image.

 Didn't see too much
merit to raising turn at this point as villain should know that I know hes been playing tight
so I didn't think I would really be bluff raising this turn that often + I
wanted to have a hand that can go call/call here as I felt much of my calling
range on turn would be pair + gutter. 

The river decision is somewhat interesting once he checks. I feel I auto bet here without too much thought because we are so high up in our range in absolute strength. But the question is what kind of hands does villain have that x/c flop, lead turn, x/c river given a bet by us on the river is pretty strong. 

1) Betting this river what sizing do you use and how will you react to a x/r? I think each of these categories of bet sizes has some merritt.

      a) small bet <50% PSB

      b) medium-large bet 50-99% PSB

      c) overbet 100+% 

Also, Would you use any exploitative thinking with your bet size. Example: "If i overbet here and he shoves i can  make an exploitative fold because my range is incredibly strong and he wouldn't bluff often enough" or "If i underbet and get x/r i can call often because my hand looks like its going for too thin value" etc.


2)Checking back- given i can atleast assume villian is a compotent/agressive 10.20 reg, I wouldn't expect him to have much of a  x/c range here, he may even x/r more than x/c. Given i don't know yet how i want  to respond to a x/r, maybe Xing back is less of a mistake than betting is?

14 Comments

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LazySummerDays 11 years, 3 months ago

I can't really figure out very many made hands that would justify his line.
QdJd, KT and maybe 1-2 combos of 55? As far as KT combos go, how often do you think he flats KTo and how often he would 3-bet KTs? Also an important question, do you think he's capable of leading a merged range (AJ/55) on the turn? I assume that most 10/20 players don't lead AJ with these stacks on this board.

I would bet small to induce, like 180-220, and call almost every raise. This is why I think small bet/call dominates overbet here. I can't think of many hands he's bluffcatching with if you bet bigger, so it's better to induce. However, a veeeeery unlikely scenario, he could potentially valuecut himself with AJ and check-raise your small bet (although I would expect him to bet AJ instead of going for check-call).

Small bet is probably best from theory perspective too, because your valuerange is most likely capped at sets and you still have a lot of missed draws on the river (a long with weak-showdown hands you probably check back with).

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 3 months ago

I'd c-bet bigger than 2/3 3-way on a dynamic board like this. About 90-100 here.
Probably calling turn here. Villian could flat the SB with KTs and KTo (read?), and c/c with someone behind, but it's not his most likely line.
But you're not going to raise much on this turn with your range, so keeping a hand like this in is nice.
If you have Qx/Jx + gutshot, you'd call. If you had Ax or a FD, you'd call.

On the river, I'd just go for a regular 75% bet. This is not a board where you'll be super polarized, and neither player is capped, so I don't like an overbet.
Betting small allows him to call with more bluff catchers, but I asssume most of them are Ax, which 3-bet pre. Don't think a hand like QT calls here.


dkelley1 11 years, 3 months ago

i would assume his turn leading range is very polarized until shown otherwise, making a smaller riv bet or checking much better w/ the majority of your range, i think overbet here w/ anything is v bad.

MrSneeze 11 years, 3 months ago

I'd definitely bet this river. Any size will do, depends on how we play our range in this spot + how we play in general and might be viewed (not so relevant here with anonymous table, so all of that is not such a big concern, and you can go with the size you feel is best for the situation).

I think we have a lot of incentives to bet big as we get to this river with many hands that will want to bluff.

A small bet is good if we have a very solid and value-oriented style of play, as we'll float less and bluff less in general. As vilain has probably no real reads on you, I'd discount that he has this image of you, so I'll bet big. Also, I'm not convinced that a small bet will induce more bluffs, it might be the opposite actually.

LazySummerDays 11 years, 3 months ago

Like, I just don't see point of betting >50% pot if OP's statement is true:

"I wouldn't expect him to have much of a  x/c range here, he may even x/r more than x/c."

If his x/c range here is very small, what's the reason for betting big? We price him out from bluffcatching with weak hands, discourage him from bluffraising and price ourselves out from calling.

Peter Jennings 11 years, 3 months ago

If this guy is a reasonable player, I think the type of range we should expect from him the stuff that makes the most sense to me in order of likelihood would be diamonds/QJ/JJ > KT > AJ

QJ stands to lose the most the times you check back the turn w/ your marginal aces that would always call a bet.  KT also might miss a checkraise for the same reason, but KT doesn't block you from having any potential two pairs or sets so I think that can be discounted a bit.  I put these broadway combos in his range often because of stack depth.

So when he has diamonds he's always folding.  When he has worse 2pr/JJ he's always calling and when he has KT he's c/shoving.

I think 3/4 psb is the correct bet here.  Also, I'd just call turn w/ KT in your spot as well so I have no problem bet/folding here since my range is protected.

LazySummerDays 11 years, 3 months ago

"So when he has diamonds he's always folding.  When he has worse 2pr/JJ he's always calling and when he has KT he's c/shoving."
So are we making the assumption that he would play his range linearly: check-folding the bottom of it, check-calling middle and check-raising top. If you think he check-folds 100% with diamonds, then what hands he is check-raise bluffing with?

As for the range assumption, I would like to hear your definition for his check-call range, if you're arguing 3/4 bet is correct. I can't figure out many two pair hands except AJ, which I would assume he often just leads river with. As for JJ, I don't really buy it because of flat pre/call flop/check river.


"I think 3/4 psb is the correct bet here.  Also, I'd just call turn w/ KT in your spot as well so I have no problem bet/folding here since my range is protected."

If you're calling KT here I'm assuming you have no raising range on this spot? I don't hate it, and then I understand why you'd be still uncapped on the river. Personally I raise KT here very often, KTdd being the only KT I call 100%. With a lot deeper stacks, maybe like 300bb+, I'll raise that too with the slight chance of a freeroll shove against another KT and flat some KdTx combos instead. I think both strategies (calling 100% vs. mixed strategy between raising/calling) are viable here though. In my experience most players go with the mixed strategy here, especially with these stack sizes.


(In your latter post)

"Ya I agree all those should pretty much just bet river themselves.  But I stipulated everything I said with 'if he's a reasonable player' because we have no idea really."

If it's 10/20 in 2013 and table is not full, then I assume he has to be somewhat competent. I think it's rare these days to see people lead highly merged range on the turn. (even up to like AT or something equally goofy)

bdoorb 11 years, 3 months ago

To your point Peter, Readless, I'd expect his AJ or even QJ to lead river some percentage of the time. I don't think it would be in my stratedy to lead turn and check river with those holdings. 


I think it would be pretty cool to play your Txdd and Kxdd as a CRAI on the river to balance the times you'd want to do it with KT. If i had missed diamonds i wouldn't expect to get enough folds by betting again on the river. 


You say your range is protected against a X/R on the river because you can show up w/ KT so you can b/f all your non straight hands. But if his stratedy is to bet AJ, QJ on the river himself, X/R KT, and draws, and x/f the rest i'm not so sure this is true.


ImMIke 11 years, 2 months ago

i think if villain lead tern w QJ or AJ i'd say he check river quite more often than bet it. because he gonna bet vs uncapped-strong range, he looks strong himself & can't excpect tons of calls from just Ax. 
while when he X, u can bluff w missed FD or tern 2nd pair into a bluff

Peter Jennings 11 years, 3 months ago

Ya I agree all those should pretty much just bet river themselves.  But I stipulated everything I said with 'if he's a reasonable player' because we have no idea really.  If he's not, we should still just do a normal bet here.  People just don't really take this line as a bluff because it's kinda suicidal against the average player pool which generally doesn't like to fold much.

Juan Copani 11 years, 3 months ago

In your last video you suggest make a float on the turn with a decent amount of KdX to be able to bluff diamonds rivers. All those + Flush Draws, does not make your river bet range a little bluff heavy if you want to make a hand like QJ indiferent to call with ? 

Peter Jennings 11 years, 3 months ago

The situation is just different.  The one I was talking about in the video was where I checked back the flop and faced a turn lead.  I think a range that chk/calls flop and leads turn is quite a bit stronger than one that just bets turn after I chk back flop.

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