2barrel spot?

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2barrel spot?

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (5 Players) BN: $118.00
SB: $50.00
BB: $53.44 (Hero)
UTG: $78.28
CO: $51.56
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BB with 5 K
3 folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.00, SB calls $3.50
Flop ($10.00) 7 3 A
SB checks, Hero bets $3.14, SB calls $3.14
Turn ($16.28) 7 3 A 5
SB checks, Hero bets $10.98, SB calls $10.98
River ($38.24) 7 3 A 5 3
SB checks, Hero checks
Final Pot SB wins and shows two pair, Aces and Threes.
SB wins $36.33
Rake is $1.91

I was thinking a 2barrel is ok here, because we picked up some 2pair equity and can fold out 88/99/TT/JJ because of RA. 24 combos. And I think he has roughly ( 77 3 combos / AQo 12 combos / A5s-AJs 21 combos = total 35 combos of value who will not fold).

How does the calculating go? how many times does my bet have to work?

5 Comments

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Jeff_ 4 years, 7 months ago

Hello,
I think on the turn you have to check this. If you bet range flop(very high%), you just end up with too many overcards to ''7'' there (JTs-KQs, 98/T9 Q9/J9, some KQo, and much more) which can be bluffed this turn and have same qualities (a)not blocking villains folds: at most he should be folding with everything below KJs b)have equity when called - but quite low)

Yes your logic holds truth on the turn - that some better are folding and some worse calling but keep in mind that 65/54 are super often raising flop so we get calls from 44 only)

cdubdiddly 4 years, 7 months ago

Here is a short, effective video on FE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QDTCIodjaI

I gave inputs of 110, 0, 160, and 8% in this calculator: https://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-calculator/ and assuming no further action (i.e. not taking into account you improving and villain ch/f weak Ax on river, you improving and losing to a set, better two pair, etc.) you need it to work 33% of the time on the turn given your equity vs his turn continuing range. From the video, if his turn continuing range is the 35 combos you listed out you would need him to XC, XF an additional 35*33%, ~12 combos to breakeven. Of course, this is only as good as your estimate of his flop continuing range and preflop calling range (e.g. if he has more AXo combos, he needs more XC, XF hands).

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