25z KQ - failed bluff
Posted by screamdustry
Posted by
screamdustry
posted in
Low Stakes
25z KQ - failed bluff
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $70.50
SB: $25.22
BB: $28.63 (Hero)
UTG: $26.50
MP: $48.53
CO: $32.79
SB: $25.22
BB: $28.63 (Hero)
UTG: $26.50
MP: $48.53
CO: $32.79
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
K
Q
, ,
Flop
($1.50)
8
5
T
, ,
Turn
($8.62)
8
5
T
3
, ,
River
($19.48)
8
5
T
3
2
,
Treat villain as a std regular.
1) Is this good choice for a bluffraise? I think it is. Two overcards, runner FD/Str8 draws, not reaaally sure tho. Propably very easy to overraisising this board while choosing this particular combo. Not sure if its better to raise there KQ or JQ in same colors? How about calling these?
2) Its surely either bet/bet at turn/rivers or just giveup turn. I dont have equity. I dont have single-street FEQ vs. his calling range.
3) As played, propably should shove there river. He's there left with 15$ in stack, shipping 15$ to win 35$ - need like 42% FEQ and given how blank this 3 is and that he's there with pratically whole flop calling range- > should propably jam. Qd is also helping
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If I play raise flop and bet turn I will jam river. I am not shure is it OK bet turn without equity. We can barrel so many card but not 3 blank.
Also I think it's over bluff flop. Villain will not cbet any hand on this texture, so without stat bet fold a lot I think raise bad option.
Seems too weak of a hand for raising to me.
+1.
So its just ch/f for you?
Yep. Versus smaller cbets I could consider calling or perhaps raising.
Very close spot. I think both raising and calling can be +EV with the BD draws and overcards, but it is very easy to overdo.
Reads would be very helpful here. The stats I look for are cbet (or cbet OOP), fold after missed flop cbet, turn cbet and fold after missing turn cbet. I am trying to figure out how much air is in the betting range compared to value and how often you get a profitable turn bluff. Fold to raise can also be checked, but it is difficult to get a sample size that is reliable.
Firstly I ran this hand using pokerstove, using villain's SB opening range as about 51% of hands (some people might disagree but I don't think that's unreasonable for 25z), and on the flop you have about 39.4% equity vs. villain's range, so we're very close to having the 40% equity needed to call based on pure pot odds, but if we do that we're obviously giving up on brick turns and probably check calling any KQJ or diamond. However I don't think calling is likely to be correct given that it's probably going to be hard to realise a lot of that equity because we're going to fold a lot of turns.
In terms of whether or not it's a good hand to check raise bluff, in zoom I think it's better to have a less polarised range than what you might have when playing normal cash. I would put KsQd in the middle of the bad hands to have in this spot, and be more inclined to check raise the best of the good hands and the best of the bad hands, ones with nuttier draws (Ad9d or 9xJx), also because we could have some bad reverse implied odds here if we run into hands that have us dominated/flushes/sets etc.
To answer your questions;
1) I think folding is the best play on the flop, as outlined above
2) I think it's better to give up turn, when you check raise the flop with backdoor draws like you say, and they brick, it's likely a big -ev move to continue.
3) Having said that, once you've bet turn and a diamond hits the river where you have one diamond blocker, I think it's best to jam and put max pressure on.
You can't compare villain's hand to 51% hands on this board because villain is obviously not c-betting 100%. Also, you should consider only immediate equity + implied odds when thinking about calling OTF, since you won't realize 100% of it by calling flop.
I too think it is a fold. I assume you 3b TT always, and 88 sometimes? T8cc you would call? So only 4 combos of 2p, and 3 sets. Depends how aggro you def Tx, but I would say you have better candidates wich you probably already use? High risk of overbluffing imo
It's fine to raise here obv sometimes depending on opp, but barreling this turn means you dont have a plan- u can barrel any card 9 or higher plus any d which is a ton of cards- give up turn as board didn't change and whatever opp Cd flp with he's calling turn.
F flp > give up turn >>>>>>>>> 3 barl
as a side note- u ever raise T9 here? Food for thought i think
I think its totally fine to raise this hand OTF, specially vs weak/tight opp, as long as you don't barrel anything like you did here. I would barrel any A, K, Q, J, 9, or diamond. And as you said, you should bet flop and river or not bet turn at all.
Having looked at it more closely I think it is a Call. And I think we have lots more T8 2p, cause we should Call all T8os also preflop. I think J9 and Q9 and AdXo are better candidates as bluffs. KQ and QJ are more Call candidates. If you do not pick up Equity or bink turn then I would fold them. Then probably Call Tx too for protection. If turn is X to us, then bluff turn With KQ and QJ
Nice answers guys, i actually have learned something. To summarize it:
1) Raising may be fine based on reads/stats, without it its too loose.
2) It is very close between fold and call, i would guess its around same EV option? Propably calling if feeling edge or with some reads that opponent may be weaker (2 tables or something).
3) While choosing hands to x/R we are looking for more nuttiness (because we are building the pot!) than with that hand.
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