25z 4-5bp

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25z 4-5bp

Im curious how you guys may approach and adjust to these spots. the pool is nitty as fuck in these spots and on average is 4betting half as often as they should (10ish%). they tend to defend okay-ish vs 4bs but defend way more frequently with a call compared to 5bing. when it comes to the pool 4bing, it tends to be very weighted towards value. on average they 4b-call 5b jams 80% of the time. when i look into my db, im losing a bunch in 5bps. the only hand that has made money in 5bps is AA, QQ,KK and AK are all losing, and by a fucking ton. KK isnt losing nearly as much as QQ and AK, but its still slightly losing surprisingly. adjustments ive come up with is to 4b fold QQ and AK since they do well in 4bps but horribly in 5bps. obviously this sounds absurd,maybe not to some but I'm really just trying to find a way to reduce how much im losing in 4-5bps and see what others have come up with when it comes to adjusting in these spots and if you guys have seen the same pattern. thanks for reading!

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Shaun Pauwels 4 years, 10 months ago

QQ,KK and AK are all losing

They're losing when you get called. But might be winning overall if you include the times they don't get called and you pick up the pot? Have you filtered for that and checked it?

VicBiggs 4 years, 10 months ago

Yeah thats included as well. The problem is that a lot of times if i 5b jam, im getting called 80% of the time because people are severely underbluffing. So im just thinking maybe just call 4bets with everything

RaoulFlush 4 years, 10 months ago

4betfolding QQ/AK sounds horrible to me. If you dont want to stack them, why not simply flat 3bets? These hands are way too strong to bluff them pre.

VicBiggs 4 years, 10 months ago

Its not that were bluffing them, its that when we 4b and get called, were doing well, but when we call the jam, were doing horrible.

RaoulFlush 4 years, 10 months ago

There is some misconception in this thinking anywhere:
1. Do you think ppl tend to never jam JJ/AK?
2. Do ppl never flat 4bets with KK+?
3. Did you take Positions into account accordingly? There is a huge difference between a UTG- and a SB-Jammingrange
4. On which amount of data do you rely?

I guess its pretty important to always have a plan with a hand before raising (2bet/3bet/...). And if you are feared that you get jammed holding QQ and should not call then (which per definition would mean you bluffed), then IMO its way better to not even 4bet them. Its not like you are doing terrible in this spot with QQ either.

VicBiggs 4 years, 10 months ago

hey thanks for engaging in this post.
1:it depends on positions of course, some people are more liberal and some arent, but generally in spots were AK is mainly a jam, which is every spot except bb v utg 4b, i think people are flatting more frequently, and in spots were AA is mainly a flat vs a 4b (where 3bettor is IP) people play it mainly as a jam. I also think QQ isnt jammed as often. people are probably ahead of me on how to adjust to the pool being so tight which is probably why.
2:some good regs do, very seldom though given it is 25z
3:no. I dont think positions really matter as much as hand strength since QQ+ AK are all supposed to be fine in 5b pots. most of the spots have been in LP though.
4:about 150k hands

I see your point but I disagree when it comes to thinking just because we are 4b folding means its a bluff. We dont get any better hands to fold so it cant be a bluff in that sense. Its like saying we are bluffing with TT and AQo/KQs when we 3b fold hj v lj. it has mergey properties, namely the KQ since we get called by worse Qx and Kx hands but also fold out a lot of Ax. and TT is a hand thats good enough to 3b and performs well when called, but poorly vs a 4b range. When I look at 4bps with AK, QQ+, I'm making a ton of money, but the only hand that makes money in 5bps is AA. I do see your point, I can flat 3bets more frequently and not 4b as often with these hands and adjust to players of course. That way I keep hands I dominate in their range. But I also think theres merit in 4b folding some of these hands because they do really well in 4bps but horrid in 5bps, it also denies equity and get value from worse pairs and suited bws.

One thing as well is that people are under 4bing severely(player dependent ofc) at 8.25% and gi vs 5bets 74% of the time. so in these spots I can just overfold to the 4bs but I'm still unsure of what adjustments to make with specific hands. the pool on average is only folding 25% of the time to 5bs, even im pretty imbalanced 4betting 13% on average and folding 38% of the time to 5bs. and if i adjust like my db suggests, i would want to only stack off with AA. KK even becomes dicey since its break even. the sample size is small but i'm sure the pattern is still there at these stakes. on stars out of 44 hands that i've had QQ,KK and AK in a 5bp, i ran into AA 22 of them, and on a softer site its 18/50 for a total of 42.5% on both sites. that is an absurdly high number. even with a QQ+AK range, AA only makes up 18% of its range. sure it could just be card distribution since 150k hands isnt nearly a lot of hands, but i still think the pattern is there. the only hand that is making money in 5bps is AA on stars and KK/AA on the softer site. which makes me think 4b folding is a fairly decent adjustment with QQ and AK. since when i 4b, i get folds 50% of the time, calls 40% of the time and jammed on 10%. so we capitalize on extra fold equity, and also by getting value from the hands that call (nice to know its very rarely KK/AA) and also since they are 5betting very seldomly, we can just 4b fold a lot. Also another thing too, is btn should always flat AA vs a co 4bet, so when we look at the equity of AK and QQ vs a correct range its 46 and 52%. but if people are always piling in AA we have 40% and 44.6%. KK has a ton of equity vs a correct range but once they start jamming AA every time we go from 73% to 56%, which is fucking insane if you consider rake, we only net 6bbs... so to me the obvious adjustment is to just 4b fold everything that isnt AA/KK vs most, and flat 3bs more often but still 4b/fold QQ and AK for value since they perform very well in 4bps and poorly in 5bps and call off against specific opponents.

sjfraley1975 4 years, 10 months ago

What sample size are we working with here? 5-bet pots can't be super common so unless you have played a ridiculously large number of hands it is a very real possibility that the results haven't approached close enough to the mean. I would be much more inclined to believe that your sample size doesn't include your fair share of suckouts, and the times you are running into a better hand that doesn't fold vs. the times you run into a hand that does is more than the actual probabilities would indicate.

VicBiggs 4 years, 10 months ago

its only about 150k hands. and i filtered for 4b and 5bps so it is adjusted for times ive gotten folds. the problem im facing is that everyone is severely underbluffing. they stack off 75% of the time when they 4b, and when they 5b, its way tighter than optimal. so im looking for insights on how to adjust to this. since in 5bps im losing a ton and my winrate could be 33% higher if i just broke even in them. and the suckouts you mention isnt really important, because even if I am running above EV, the EV of these hands is negative in 5bps

VicBiggs 4 years, 10 months ago

well on average people 3b fold to 4bet 37% of the time. in order for someone to 5b they have to first 3bet which one average is 7%, and they 5b 12% depending on positions so if im doing this right that means on average their 5b range is .9% of hands which funny enough works out to be exactly KK and AA. of course there is some variation as there are some hands that have got in light of course but this does make a lot of sense to me tbh. there are some crazy hands of course that have gotten 5b, but out of 1800 5bps only 21.63% has 4b folded. which makes sense because if someone 4bets bn v sb 8%, then 43 * .08 = 3.44% of hands so if they get in QQ+ AK which is 2.56% of hands that means they call off 75% and fold 25% of the time.

Jeff_ 4 years, 10 months ago

Possible reason that they are doing bad is quite tight 3betting ranges and not well constructed 5bet jamming ranges.
One way or another if AKo isn't ''profitable''(everything above 0EV) 4bet/call it off in MPvsCO situation something is wrong. It is possible that people just don't have 5bet bluffing range(and semi bluffing which is AK/AQs at some extent)? So they should leak money postflop there with quite defined range
What solver does it is bluff 5betting AK/JJ/TT and balances it out with KK and frequency of AA

VicBiggs 4 years, 10 months ago

Yeah man i agree. Overall when ive had ak in a 5bp i ran jnto AA or KK 9/19 times and down 10bis in this spot alone. I ran QQ into KK/AA 6/13 times and ran KK into AA 6/14 times. So it seems to me that the best adjustment is to 4b fold AK and QQ depending on player and positions since its expected to be losing, not even just in practice but when you run the equities of a range where people dont jam JJ or TT at all. Wheres the incentive for us to 4b call TT-QQ when were co when bn always has AA in their 5b range. What makes these hands profitable calls is the assumption that AA is pure calling. When we add AA to a 5b jam range were losing so much damn money. Can you imagine KK having 47% equity hj v co if they always jam AA. If we 4b to 20bbs and get jammed on, calling is netting us more than folding but its crazy to think that KK is still netting us less than what we invested in the pot. Our main incentive is to play mainly 4bet pots it seems, people arent 5b jamming enough and when we get our 4b called we can be fairly confident its like 99-JJ, some AK and AQs and maybe suited bws . In my db this past month im up 40bis in 4bps and down 8bis in 5bps. If i didnt run good in them i would be down 15bis or more

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