[25NLZOOM] Low set facing turn c/r
Posted by ifiwasu
Posted by
ifiwasu
posted in
Low Stakes
[25NLZOOM] Low set facing turn c/r
BN: $14.03
SB: $27.05
BB: $29.48 (Hero)
UTG: $25.77
HJ: $34.55
CO: $38.52
SB: $27.05
BB: $29.48 (Hero)
UTG: $25.77
HJ: $34.55
CO: $38.52
StatsSB:26/16/3 Agg:1.6 WTSD:37 Turnagg:28% No c/r stats yet ColdcallSB:11%
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
3
3
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.75, BN calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, Hero calls $0.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.75, BN calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, Hero calls $0.50
Flop
($3.00)
3
4
6
(4 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $2.20,
CO folds,
BN calls $2.20,
SB calls $2.20
I decided to lead out here since the original raiser doesn't cbet that much and the other players were really weak so I thought this was the best way to get value and protect my hand.
Turn
($9.60)
3
4
6
Q
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $6.50,
BN folds,
SB raises to $15.25
It was hard for me to come up with hands that had me beat here, 75 isn't in his range that much and I expect most of his 44,66 would raise the flop and if they didn't there isn't much sense in raising the turn now. QQ will squeeze preflop I geuss?
So I thought villain could have a hand like 56ss that he just wants to get it in with.
Please correct me in my thought process if you think its faulty because I was a little lost here.
Loading 5 Comments...
Poker is a funny game, I kinda disagree with every single point in your statement. :)
1) SB has a 10% gap between PFR and VPIP, 75 (at least suited!) is 100% part of his range, even more after BTN cold-calling and Hero probably overcalling wide as well due to the great odds. I´d see all 16 combos of 75 in his range.
2) It makes essentially no sense for him to raise the flop with a set (or straight), why should he ever do that (and drive out the players after him)?
3) It makes sense for him to raise the turn, BTN has folded, so he´s HU with you now, any spade / 5 / 7 might kill his action or give you the best hand. If you continue betting on the Q you might have a hand as good as 2-pair / set (if he has straight), so raising the turn makes perfect sense with a strong hand.
4) I´d never expect a guy with low Aggression (1.6!) and high WTSD (= low aggression, showdown-bound, few bluffs) to semi-bluff-raise the turn with a hand like 65s. This just won´t happen. ;)
5) Other than you I don´t see any hands that YOU have beat at the point where Villain raises.
6) If he wants "to get it in" with a worse hand, even a bluff, why is he not just shipping to maxizimize FE or get the most amount of money in the middle before he has a tough river decision - but elects to minraise?
All above-mentioned points, especially combined with his passivity and showdown-orientation tell me that you´re beat like always. Treating his raise like a shove you need 30% equity. No way that you ever have those, imho.
Fold and feel good about it.
Yeah I agree with biggyfishz. Also I prefer not leading on the flop on this board.
Very clear explanation BigFiszh! Thanks.
I feel like in these spots that I'm more looking for a reason to just call and not fold my set, so I tell myself shit like; "He probably would have raised a bigger set on the flop so I just ship it in and call it a cooler if he does have a higher set."
While the correct way to approach these kind of situations is; "Ok, he's totally not aggressive, is a stationy player with a very low agg and high WTSD, what could he possibly raise here that I beat?" If I understand you correctly.
I already kinda felt that my thought process was ridicules so that's why I specific asked for that in my post, and man!!! I was way off in this one!!
Your post really helped me out BigFiszh.
this should never be a fold guys...we need about 21% if behind and i would never say never that players like this will semiblufffraise or raise 2p for value...why shouldnt he overcall 46 like 57? I think a fold here is really a mistake cauz we´re folding the top top top of our range....if hes got higher set, so be it...vs anything else we have to call at least OTT
I disagree strongly and I even think it´s a leak to think this way.
Given all we know about Villain it´s very unlikely that he´s overplaying 64. This is almost always a set or a straight. IF it´s set or better, the call on the turn is definitely -EV. It´s slightly -EV if you plan on folding any non-paired board and it´s hugely -EV if you call any river.
That said, the only way you´re making very marginal money is if Villain is raising two-pair, but in this case you had to call down any river - which results in a horrible costly mistake if you´re wrong with your assumption (and you better be really sure, once you give him 50% chance for raising with two-pair, your EV drops down close to zero again).
Be the first to add a comment