[25NLZ] River value is too thin?
Posted by ChaoRen123
Posted by
ChaoRen123
posted in
Low Stakes
[25NLZ] River value is too thin?
Hi guys, villain is a reg 24/21/8.5, 30% RFI CO, and 75% cbet which is why my friend who played this hand raised the flop. Big blind is a fish, justifying the flat pre.
I think his river shove is too thin, because if villain is a reg he will see that we don't have enough bluffs excepting low AXss, and 76ss, so will probably fold AA-KK or QJ.
What do you guys think?
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Fish in the pot, don't think we want to bluff otf here, making co range much stronger. River is too thin, we can't get calls from worse hands
Even if villain cbets 70%+ overall?
Agreed for the river.
When there is a fish in the pot, players play more straightforward. And fish can cold call here so much, with every pair with qs example and thats very bad. Just trying to say when theres a fish in the pot with connected board like this bluffing becomes very meh.
And even when CO bets just halfpot he has like medium hands usually pairs with straightdraws which arent folding usually vs raise.
3bet or fold strategy probably would be higher ev even if fish is behind, playing capped cold calling range for a low stakes player is just too hard. This hand is very good example for that. If I had to guess in equilibrium we shouldnt be raising the flop at any frequency at all to protect calling range, as played probably checking range on turn and take it from there. I think river shove is just a huge mistake even if he’s very high at his range
River shove its clear mistake for me. We have good SD and hard villain turn his hand to bluff.
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